Knowledge that Transforms

This paper undertakes a cross-country analysis of the determinants of VAT compliance, using data from a sample of 17 OECD countries for 1987. An index of compliance is constructed and regressed against variables which represent characteristics of the countries and their VAT rates. It is found that (a) a higher VAT rate is associated with lower compliance, and this tradeoff limits the revenue-maximizing VAT rate to under 25%; (b) compliance is substantially lower with multiple VAT rates; and (c) an extra dollar spent on administration raises revenue by $12, and longer experience with administering a VAT also raises compliance. Several OECD countries are ranged along a frontier, collecting about 8% of GDP through a VAT, but with rates of 14% to 22% on bases between 60% and 40% of GDP. For these, the base could only be broadened if the tax rate were lowered.

This paper constructs a theoretical model of foreign direct investment and examines the extent to which the model can explain the level of outward direct investment by U.S. companies over the last two decades. The authors find that market size and factor costs, both labor and capital, are important factors in the investment decision. Instrumental variable estimation is used to demonstrate that the expectation of short-run fluctuations in the dollar also influences the timing of investment.

Flow of funds; Monetary policy

The authors assess the impact of college quality on women's earnings and the influence of family and individual endowments on college choice using new data from a survey of identical and nonidentical twins born in Minnesota. The estimates reject models that ignore school choice. The statistically preferred estimates suggest that Ph.D.-granting, private universities with well-paid senior faculty and smaller enrollments produce students who have significantly higher earnings later in life. Both the quantity of schooling and the quality of schooling resources are allocated to higher-endowed individuals, which exacerbates preexisting inequality in human capital and biases conventional estimates of school quality effects.

Rakesh Basant, Brian Fikkert, The Effects of R&D, Foreign Technology Purchase, and Domestic and International Spillovers on Productivity in Indian Firms, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 78, No. 2 (May, 1996), pp. 187-199

Bruce Kogut, Sea Jin Chang, Platform Investments and Volatile Exchange Rates: Direct Investment in the U.S. by Japanese Electronic Companies, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 78, No. 2 (May, 1996), pp. 221-231

This paper attempts to reconcile the contradictory findings in the debate over school resources and school effectiveness by highlighting the role of aggregation in the presence of omitted variables bias. While data aggregation for well-specified linear models yields unbiased parameter estimates, aggregation alters the magnitude of any omitted variables bias. In general, the theoretical impact of aggregation is ambiguous. In a very relevant special case where omitted variables relate to state differences in school policy, however, aggregation implies clear upward bias of estimated school resource effects. Analysis of High School and Beyond data provides strong evidence that aggregation inflates the coefficients on school resources. Moreover, the pattern of results is not consistent with an errors-in-variables explanation, the alternative explanation for the larger estimated impact with aggregate estimates. Since studies using aggregate data are much more likely to find positive school resource effects on achievement, these results provide further support to the view that additional expenditures alone are unlikely to improve student outcomes.

Jean-Paul Chavas, Matthew T. Holt, Economic Behavior Under Uncertainty: A Joint Analysis of Risk Preferences and Technology, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 78, No. 2 (May, 1996), pp. 329-335

Using a panel data set for the forty-eight contiguous states from 1970 to 1983, several estimates are provided of a Cobb-Douglas production function with three types of public capital as inputs. Various specification tests are systematically applied to test for both random and fixed state effects, nonstationarity, endogeneity of the private inputs, and measurement error. In the preferred specification, which is first differences with fixed state effects, the public capital variables are not significant, while the fixed state effects and private input variables are significant.

The mechanisms governing the relationship of money, prices and interest rates to the business cycle are the most studied and most disputed topics in macroeconomics. In this paper, we first document key empirical aspects of this relationship. We then ask how well three benchmark rational expectations macroeconomic models-a real business cycle model, a sticky price model and a liquidity effect model-account for these central facts. While the models have diverse successses and failures, none can account for the fact that real and nominal interest rates are "inverted leading indicators " of real economic activity. That is, none of the models captures the post-war U.S. business cycle fact that a high real or nominal interest rate in the current quarter predicts a low level of real economic activity two to four quarters in the future. Robert G. King and Mark W. Watson* In exploring the predictions of these models, we take the stock of money to be one of several exogenous variables in the system. All of our models are capable of generating a forecasting role for money relative to real economic activity, similar to that found in the U.S. data. In the real business model, monetary changes can forecast real activity because productivity is related to many underlying sources of shocks and because these real shocks also affect the money stock. In the models with "sticky prices " and "liquidity effects" I.