Knowledge that Transforms

The New Deal during the 1930s was arguably the largest peace-time expansion in federal government activity in American history. Until recently, there had been very little quantitative testing of the microeconomic impact of the wide variety of New Deal programs. Over the past decade scholars have developed new panel databases for counties, cities, and states and then used panel data methods on them to examine the impact of New Deal spending and lending policies for the major New Deal programs. In most cases, the identification of the effect comes from changes across time within the same geographic location after controlling for national shocks to the economy. Many of the studies also use instrumental variable methods to control for endogeneity. The studies find that public works and relief spending had state income multipliers of around one, increased consumption activity, attracted internal migration, reduced crime rates, and lowered several types of mortality. The farm programs typically aided large farm owners but eliminated opportunities for share croppers, tenants, and farm workers. The Home Owners' Loan Corporation's purchases and refinancing of troubled mortgages staved off drops in housing prices and home ownership rates at relatively low ex post cost to taxpayers. The Reconstruction Finance Corporation's loans to banks and railroads appear to have had little positive impact, although the banks were aided when the RFC took ownership stakes.

We survey the literature on dynamic elections in the traditional settings of spatial preferences and rent seeking under perfect and imperfect monitoring of politicians. We define stationary electoral equilibrium, which encompasses notions used by Barro (1973), Ferejohn (1986), Banks and Sundaram (1998), and others. We show that repeated elections mitigate the commitment problems of politicians and voters, and that a responsive democracy result holds under general conditions. Term limits, however, attenuate the responsiveness finding. We also touch on related applied work, and we point to areas for fruitful future research, including the connection between dynamic models of politics and economics.

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs innovate by conditioning transfers to poor families on investments in the human capital of children and other family members. The Mexican CCT program Progresa/Oportunidades began in 1997 and has served as a model for many of the now over sixty countries with CCTs around the world, in large part due to its initial evaluation with an experimental design and numerous follow-up studies. This article reviews the literature on the development, evaluation, and findings of Progresa/Oportunidades, summarizing what is known about program effects, taking into account corrections for multiple-hypothesis testing.

This essay surveys the new monetarist approach to liquidity. Work in this literature strives for empirical and policy relevance, plus rigorous foundations. Questions include: What is liquidity? Is money essential in achieving desirable outcomes? Which objects can or should serve in this capacity? When can asset prices differ from fundamentals? What are the functions of commitment and collateral in credit markets? How does money interact with credit and intermediation? What can and should monetary policy do? The research summarized emphasizes the micro structure of frictional transactions, and studies how institutions like monetary exchange, credit arrangements, or intermediation facilitate the exchange process.

We survey the literature on the economic consequences of the structure of social networks. We develop a taxonomy of “macro” and “micro” characteristics of social-interaction networks and discuss both the theoretical and empirical findings concerning the role of those characteristics in determining learning, diffusion, decisions, and resulting behaviors. We also discuss the challenges of accounting for the endogeneity of networks in assessing the relationship between the patterns of interactions and behaviors.

Many markets exhibit price dispersion across suppliers of observationally identical goods. Statistical agencies typically assume this dispersion reflects unobserved quality, so standard price indexes do not incorporate price declines when buyers substitute toward lower-price suppliers. We show that long-run price differences across suppliers can be used to infer unobserved quality differences and propose an index that accommodates quality-adjusted price dispersion. Using transaction-level data on contract semiconductor manufacturing, we document substantial quality-adjusted price dispersion and confirm that a standard index is biased above our proposed index.

The English rule prescribes that the loser of a lawsuit pays the winner's litigation costs. Previous research on the English rule finds that plaintiffs win more often at trial, receive higher awards, and receive larger settlements. Theory predicts that the English rule discourages settlement by raising the threshold payment necessary for settlement. In this paper, we reexamine the Florida experiment with the English rule by placing bounds on the selection effects. We find that the mean and median settlement amount increases. Collectively these findings are consistent with the predictions of the simplest models of the English rule's impact.

This paper suggests an identification and estimation approach based on quantile regression to recover the underlying distribution of bidders’ private values in ascending auctions under the IPV paradigm. The quantile regression approach provides a flexible and convenient parameterization of the private values distribution, with an estimation methodology easy to implement and with several specification tests. The quantile framework provides a new focus on the quantile level of the private values distribution—in particular, the seller’s optimal screening level, which can be very useful for bidders and seller. An empirical application using data from the USFS timber auctions illustrates the methodology.

In this paper, we discuss the key conditions for the identification and estimation of the local average treatment effect (LATE, Imbens and Angrist, 1994): the valid instrument assumption (LI) and the monotonicity assumption (LM). We show that the joint assumptions of LI and LM have a testable implication that can be summarized by a sign restriction defined by a set of intersection bounds. We propose an easy-to-implement testing procedure that can be analyzed in the framework of Chernozhukov, Lee, and Rosen (2013) and implemented using the Stata package of Chernozhukov, Kim, Lee, and Rosen (2013). We apply the proposed tests to the "draft eligibility" instrument in Angrist (1991), the "college proximity" instrument in Card (1993) and the "same sex" instrument in Angrist and Evans (1998).