Knowledge that Transforms

This essay reviews Michel De Vroey’s important new book on the history of macroeconomics, which extends to business cycles an earlier book by the same author on the history of involuntary unemployment. The review also offers a broader nontechnical survey of the issues and models that make up modern macroeconomics, including a reckoning of what we have learned since John Maynard Keynes and of the discoveries that still lie ahead.

This essay presents a critical review of the recent book by Alkire et al. entitled Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis, and, in the course of doing so, it also discusses some general issues that come up in this context. We outline the basic structure of the problem of measuring multidimensional deprivation and critically evaluate the methodology adopted by Alkire et al. (2015). In particular, we discuss some problems associated with the methods used by them to identify the deprived and to aggregate individual deprivations so as to derive an index of social deprivation. We examine the interpretation in terms of unfreedoms of individuals, which Alkire et al. put on one of their measures of social deprivation. We also suggest a variant of their methodology for measuring multidimensional deprivation.

Abundant data has led to new opportunities for empirical auctions research in recent years, with much of the newest work on auctions of multiple objects, including: (1) auctions of ranked objects (such as sponsored search ads), (2) auctions of identical objects (such as Treasury bonds), and (3) auctions of dissimilar objects (such as FCC spectrum licenses). This paper surveys recent developments in the empirical analysis of such auctions.

There is a growing appreciation in economics that people have emotional vulnerabilities, commitments to social norms, and systematic irrationalities that impact their decision making and choice in the market place. The flip side of this is that human beings are susceptible to being manipulated by unscrupulous agents single-minded about marketing their services and wares. This paper reviews George Akerlof and Robert Shiller's Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, alongside other writings in the field, and discusses how this research agenda can be taken forward. The paper shows how this new research can shed light on the ubiquity of corruption in so many societies, and proposes ideas for controlling corruption.

The Health Gap documents the large and persistent health gaps that exist across and within relatively rich countries today. Marmot argues that in developed countries, poor health does not cause low incomes; rather, low socioeconomic status leads to poor health, but not because of proximate factors like differential health care access, which can explain only a small portion of these gaps. Therefore, to eliminate health gaps, policy should focus on the deep causes of disease: poverty, education, and occupational mobility, among others. While Marmot’s ethical arguments are quite compelling, his recommendations are too strong given the current evidence. Policies need to be based on a clearer understanding of why things work, when, and for whom.

While the GDP was intended by its originators as a measure of production, the absence of a measure of welfare in the national accounts has led to widespread misuse of the GDP to proxy welfare. Measures of welfare are needed to appraise the outcomes of changes in economic policies and evaluate the results. Concepts that describe the income distribution, such as poverty and inequality, fall within the scope of welfare rather than production. This paper reviews recent advances in the measurement of production and welfare within the national accounts, primarily in the United States and international organizations. Expanding the framework beyond the national accounts has led to important innovations in the measurement of both production and welfare.

Residential segregation by race and income are enduring features of urban America. Understanding the effects of residential segregation on educational attainment, labor market outcomes, criminal activity, and other outcomes has been a leading project of the social sciences for over half a century. This paper describes techniques for measuring the effects of neighborhood of residence on long-run life outcomes.

The pharmaceutical industry accounts for a substantial chunk of the US economy's research and development investments, which have resulted in significant medical breakthroughs. At the same time, the costs of pharmaceutical products continue to rise, as does pressure to adopt direct or indirect controls on pharmaceutical prices. We review the economics literature on the pharmaceutical industry, focusing particularly on its positive and normative implications for the innovation, pricing, and marketing decisions of pharmaceutical firms. We discuss the major achievements of, and persistent gaps in, the literature, along with lessons for policy.

This essay critically evaluates the analytic literature concerned with causal connections between Islam and economic performance. It focuses on works since 1997, when this literature was last surveyed comprehensively. Among the findings are the following: Ramadan fasting by pregnant women harms prenatal development; Islamic charities mainly benefit the middle class; Islam affects educational outcomes less through Islamic schooling than through structural factors that handicap learning as a whole; Islamic finance has a negligible effect on Muslim financial behavior; and low generalized trust depresses Muslim trade. The last feature reflects the Muslim world’s delay in transitioning from personal to impersonal exchange. The delay resulted from the persistent simplicity of the private enterprises formed under Islamic law. Weak property rights reinforced the private sector’s stagnation by driving capital from commerce to rigid waqfs. Waqfs limited economic development through their inflexibility and democratization by keeping civil society embryonic. Parts of the Muslim world conquered by Arab armies are especially undemocratic, which suggests that early Islamic institutions were particularly critical to the persistence of authoritarian patterns of governance. States have contributed to the persistence of authoritarianism by treating Islam as an instrument of governance. As the world started to industrialize, non-Muslim subjects of Muslim-governed states pulled ahead of their Muslim neighbors, partly by exercising the choice of law they enjoyed under Islamic law in favor of a Western legal system.

Research in international trade has changed dramatically over the last twenty years, as attention has shifted from countries and industries towards the firms actually engaged in international trade. The now-standard heterogeneous firm model posits measure-zero firms that compete under monopolistic competition and decide whether to export to foreign markets. However, much of international trade is dominated by a few “global firms,” which participate in the international economy along multiple margins and account for substantial shares of aggregate trade. We develop a new theoretical framework that allows firms to have large market shares and decide simultaneously on the set of production locations, export markets, input sources, products to export, and inputs to import. Using US firm and trade transactions data, we provide strong evidence in support of this framework's main predictions of interdependencies and complementarities between these margins of firm international participation. Global firms participate more intensively along each margin, magnifying the impact of underlying differences in firm characteristics and increasing their shares of aggregate trade.