Knowledge that Transforms

This paper has developed a model of bank margins or spreads in which the bank is viewed as a risk-averse dealer. It was demonstrated that an interest spread or margin would always exist, and that this was the result of transactions uncertainty faced by the bank. Moreover, it was shown that this pure spread depended on four factors: the degree of managerial risk aversion; the size of transactions undertaken by the bank; bank market structure; and the variance of interest rates. The model implied that liability and asset structures had to be analyzed together since they were directly interrelated through transactions uncertainty. It was shown that because of this transactions uncertainty, hedging behavior was perfectly rational within an expected utility maximizing framework. Extending the model from a structure with one kind of loan and deposit to loans and deposits with many maturities should lead to further interesting insights into margin determination especially as “portfolio” effects may become apparent.

Assuming rational expectations, a specialization of Ross' Arbitrage Pricing Theory is used to obtain a simple securities market valuation formula when dividends follow linear stochastic processes. The implications of this model for the use of accounting data to measure risk and for capital budgeting are explored. A new measure of riskiness based on accounting data is derived, and the use of risk-adjusted discount rates is evaluated.

This study documents empirical anomalies which suggest that either the simple one-period capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is misspecified or that capital markets are inefficient. In particular, portfolios based on firm size or earnings/price (E/P) ratios experience average returns systematically different from those predicted by the CAPM. Furthermore, the ‘abnormal’ returns persist for at least two years. This persistence reduces the likelihood that these results are being generated by a market inefficiency. Rather, the evidence seems to indicate that the equilibrium pricing model is misspecified. However, the data also reveals that an E/P effect does not emerge after returns are controlled for the firm size effect; the firm size effect largely subsumes the E/P effect. Thus, while the E/P anomaly and value anomaly exist when each variable is considered separately, the two anomalies seem to be related to the same set of missing factors, and these factors appear to be more closely associated with firm size than E/P ratios.

Recent studies have implied that the capital market has become more efficient with respect to the announcements of stock splits and corporate earnings. This study calculated residual returns associated with these announcements and then tested, by time period (early and late years), for a between period difference. The results suggest that for certain earnings and split announcements the market is no more efficient than it has been in the past.

This paper examines the effects of a common stock repurchase on the values of the repurchasing firm's common stock, debt and preferred stock, and attempts to identify the dominant factors underlying the observed value changes. The evidence indicates that significant increases in firm values occur within one day of a stock repurchase announcement. These value changes appear to be due principally to an information signal from the repurchasing firm. Common stockholders are the beneficiaries of virtually all of the value increments, but no class of securities examined declines in value as a result of the repurchase.

Valuation by duplication is a useful conceptual technique but it does not yield unique formula. Many duplicating portfolios, some simpler than the three security portfolio in Roll and Whaley, exist for this problem. Valuing the actual single security will generally yield conceptually and computationally simpler solutions.

This paper analyzes the equilibrium valuation of risky assets in the case where transactions costs are present. The methodology involves applying ‘theorems of the alternative’ (Farkas' Lemma) as a consequence of arbitrage-free markets. Under relevant assumptions, it is found that the price of an asset having transactions costs is the corresponding price that would obtain in a perfect market, plus a ‘fudge factor’. This latter factor is provided explicit bounds.

In this paper an intertemporal model of international asset pricing is constructed which admits differences in consumption opportunity sets across countries. It is shown that the real expected excess return on a risky asset is proportional to the covariance of the return of that asset with changes in the world real consumption rate. (World real consumption does not, in general, correspond to a basket of commodities consumed by all investors.) The model has no barriers to international investment, but it is compatible with empirical facts which contradict the predictions of earlier models and which seem to imply that asset markets are internationally segmented.

Breeden's demonstration that Merton's multi-beta capital asset pricing model can be collapsed into a single-beta model where betas are computed with respect to aggregate consumption is an important theoretical advance. Nonetheless, Breeden's model retains many of the empirical problems that beset Merton's earlier version. In general the consumption betas will be nonstationary, so that the state variables must be observable for the model to be estimated.

This paper is a theoretical investigation of equilibrium forward and futures prices. We construct a rational expectations model in continuous time of a multigood, identical consumer economy with constant stochastic returns to scale production. Using this model we find three main results. First, we find formulas for equilibrium forward, futures, discount bond, commodity bond and commodity option prices. Second, we show that a futures price is actually a forward price for the delivery of a random number of units of a good; the random number is the return earned from continuous reinvestment in instantaneously riskless bonds until maturity of the futures contract. Third, we find and interpret conditions under which normal backwardation or contango is found in forward or futures prices; these conditions reflect the usefulness of forward and futures contracts as consumption hedges.