Knowledge that Transforms

If a firm is considering replacing part of its productive facility because of obsolescence rather than wear-and-tear (e.g., purchasing a new model machine), it weighs the expected gains against the expected costs. A problem may arise when the rate of technological innovation for the type of machinery is extremely rapid. Such replacement may yield a gain if made today, but because innovations are so rapid, a year's delay in replacement may yield a greater net gain, and it would seem wiser to wait the year. But each year the same reasoning seems to hold; the more rapidly innovations seem likely to occur, the more likely a firm is to delay. If technology is advancing quickly enough, a firm may never consider any time a good time for replacement.

Elliott's basic proposition is praiseworthy. Nevertheless, I have a number of serious reservations about the implications of his model and the reliability of its predictions. Some of my reservations relate to the theoretical foundation of the model itself, while others are concerned with his methodology and estimation techniques.

Aggregation of monies must be determined in accord with the theory using the aggregate. This theory must specify aggregation (1) eligibility rules and (2) weights. Four current methods are evaluated on this basis: Fisher's aggregation bases eligibility on significant quantities Vi of monies Mi and attaches quantity weights Vi/Vn (Vn being numeraire). Pesek-Saving aggregation merely substitutes social marginal value weights Vipi/Vnpn. Friedman-Schwartz aggregation has eligibility depend on good subsequent statistical performance and uses weights given by private marginal values (gross of subsidies). Chetty's aggregation has all assets eligible and weighted by cross-elasticities of demand.

Studies [1, 3, 4, 5] pertaining to the relationship between a firm's cost of capital and the debt component of its capital structure have been implicitly assuming the equivalent-risk class hypothesis to be true. According to the hypothesis, firms belonging to the same industry group do not exhibit significant differences in regard to business risk and can, therefore, be treated as belonging to an equivalent risk class. The validity of this hypothesis, as borne out by the research of Wippern [8] and, later, of Gonedes [2], has become questionable. The purpose of the present paper is to replicate the test carried out by Gonedes with a set of sampled data from Indian industries. A brief review of the two existing studies is given below.

William L. Sartoris, The Effect of Regulation, Population Characteristics, and Competition on the Market for Personal Cash Loans, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 7, No. 4 (Sep., 1972), pp. 1931-1956

Robert A. Haugen, James L. Pappas, Equilibrium in the Pricing of Capital Assets, Risk-Bearing Debt Instruments, and the Question of Optimal Capital Structure: A Reply, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 7, No. 4 (Sep., 1972), pp. 2005-2008

J. L. Dake, Comment: An Empirical Test of Financial Ratio Analysis, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 7, No. 2, Supplement: Outlook for the Securities Industry (Mar., 1972), pp. 1495-1497

In a previous paper we reviewed the literature on normative stock price models. These models specified the present value of a share of common stock to be equal to the discounted value of dividends accruing to the holder. Using continuous discounting, the present value of a share is (1) where Dt is the dividend rate at time t and k is the cost of equity capital. Presumably k is a function of both the stockholders' time value of money and the perceived risk or uncertainty associated with the future dividend stream.

The interdependence of loan cost and tangible bank activity is an aspect of the cost of bank debt that has not been treated in the literature. Understanding this interdependence is important for banks in pricing their services, especially as banks adopt more flexible pricing policies. This understanding is crucial for a firm in establishing the true cost of bank borrowing, in comparing bank borrowing with other sources of funds, and in evaluating the firm's banks. It is also important for understanding the firm-bank relationship in general and the cost of capital in particular.

This paper will demonstrate that different margin levels are associated with the price behavior differences of certain commodity futures. In 1959, Harry Roberts suggested the methodology of rational subgrouping as a means of testing random versus systematic price changes. His methodological suggestion has had only limited testing in security markets and no direct application to domestic futures markets. This paper uses margin levels as a basis for rational subgrouping of selected commodity futures. Evidence supports the argument that, when a series of price changes is grouped according to margin levels and these levels are analyzed separately, nonrandom characteristics that tend to be offsetting in the aggregate series become evident. The nonrandom behavior observed is consistent with the hypothesis that, in certain periods, margin levels have been set too high to attract a volume of speculative services necessary for the maintenance of market balance.