Knowledge that Transforms

Recent reform in China has made a subset of Chinese stocks available to foreign investors, partially opening up China's stock market. Our difference-in-differences analysis shows that this liberalization reform boosts investments in investable firms relative to noninvestable ones, with results robust to various sensitivity analyses. Besides capital inflows and risk sharing, a potential but underexplored channel is improved corporate governance due to direct and indirect pressures from foreign investors, which lowers the cost of capital and improves capital allocation efficiency. Consistent with this corporate governance channel, we find that the liberalization reform reduces investable firms’ agency costs, increases their investment efficiency and total factor productivity, and improves their operating performance. Further analysis finds that the positive investment effect from the liberalization reform is stronger among firms that were poorly governed before the reform.

This paper examines the link between ownership concentration and corporate bond volatility. We show that more concentrated mutual fund ownership is associated with higher volatility of corporate bonds. This relation is stronger among more illiquid bonds, during periods of heightened bond market illiquidity, and among bonds held by corporate bond funds that invest in more illiquid bonds and experience higher or more correlated liquidity shocks. Using a sample of mutual fund mergers, we further show that increases in bond volatility are unlikely to be driven entirely by the endogenous ownership structure of corporate bonds. Our findings suggest that the concentrated ownership by corporate bond mutual funds provides another channel, apart from illiquidity, to help explain the excess volatility in corporate bonds.

In a novel econometric framework, we identify differences and significant asymmetries in financial markets' responses to the European Central Bank (ECB)'s various policy interventions during the eurozone crisis. Dollar liquidity interventions reduced stress in bond markets and improved economic sentiment, as reflected in higher equity prices. In contrast, the ECB's euro liquidity provisions and monetary stimulus measures delivered modest results. In both these cases, government bond spreads typically did decline but the risk of large spread increases and equity losses also increased. Only the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) intervention had a substantial expansionary effect. The results emphasize the importance of unambiguous monetary policy for driving market expectations.

Machine learning methods have achieved great success in modeling complex patterns in finance such as asset pricing and credit risk that enable them to outperform statistical models. In addition to the predictive accuracy of machine learning methods, the ability to interpret what a model has learned is crucial in the finance industry. We address this challenge by adapting interpretable machine learning to the context of corporate bond recovery rate modeling. In addition to the best performance, we show the value of interpretable machine learning by finding drivers of recovery rates and their relationship that cannot be discovered by the use of traditional machine learning methods. Our findings are financially meaningful and consistent with the findings in the existing credit risk literature.

Effective risk management in pension funds requires the use of appropriate long-term risk and performance indicators. However, Defined Contribution (DC) pension plans currently rely on short-term metrics that don't align with the retirement income goals of beneficiaries. Against this backdrop, we introduce a funding ratio measure for DC plans defined as the plan assets divided by accrued benefits derived from any given (defined) stream of contributions. The funding ratio's denominator is the present value of the total retirement income achievable if all contributions had been invested in fully amortizing fixed-income portfolios called retirement bonds. We also use the retirement bonds to introduce a class of target-income strategies that can effectively reduce income risk as retirement approaches, but also secure minimum funding ratio levels. These simple asset allocation rules strongly dominate the standard target-date fund strategies routinely used by DC plans, in terms of retirement outcomes for beneficiaries.

Using city-level data from China, we find that the overall size of finance does not affect the extent of resource misallocation. However, when finance is decomposed into different parts, we find that local government-driven finance backed by the revenues from land sales exacerbates the misallocation problem, while the remaining part of finance, which is more likely market-driven, significantly improves allocative efficiency. We use the instrumental variable approach to establish causality. Further evidence shows that local government-driven finance lowers allocative efficiency by facilitating the allocation of resources to the low-productivity state sector, but non-local government-driven finance reduces the extent of such distortions. Our analyses suggest that identifying the sources of financial assets and, more broadly, distinguishing between good finance and bad finance are critical to develop a socially desirable financial system.

This paper investigates the validity of banks' credit loss projections in the bi-annual EU-wide bank stress tests, which inform regulatory capital requirements. It finds that banks “re-optimized” their models in 2016 to bring down credit losses, exploiting flexibility in the stress test framework. Specifically, banks whose losses would have increased the most from 2014 to 2016 because of changes in the adverse scenario saw the largest decrease in projected losses thanks to model changes. Upon the release of the 2016 stress test results, stock prices and credit default swap spreads increased more for banks that achieved a greater reduction in credit losses through “re-optimization”, consistent with investors anticipating lower future capital requirements for these banks.

We examine the impact of employee-related Corporate Social Responsibility (ER-CSR) on pay disparity between top management and the average worker. Firms with higher ER-CSR ratings have a lower pay disparity and the effect is greatest when executives are paid the most. ER-CSR is associated with a lower ratio of top management's cash and long-term incentive compensation, relative to the average employee's pay. We find that the negative relation is driven by socially responsible firms paying their average employees more. Finally, we document that CSR activities related to employee relations and diversity are those leading to a significant pay disparity reduction.

Financial distress is a prevalent issue among the youth. An influential stream of literature has argued that religion wields significant influence over human life. Using a representative sample of U.S. young people, we explore whether religiosity matters for financial distress. To deal with endogeneity issue, we exploit arguably exogeneous within-school variation in adolescents’ peers. By instrumenting an adolescent's own religiosity with the religiosity of their school peer group, we find that higher levels of religiosity causally and significantly reduce the likelihood of financial distress at young adulthood. Our results withstand a variety of robustness checks. To shed light on the mechanisms, we explore the impact of religiosity on an individual's sociability and various psychological attributes. We find that more religious individuals hold higher levels of self-control, a crucial attribute that aids in averting financial distress. Our study contributes to the literature by providing rigorous causal evidence that identifies religiosity as a meaningful predictor of reduced financial distress among young adults.

Using a corporate culture measure based on the textual analysis of the Q&A section of earnings conference calls, we document robust evidence that similar corporate cultural values between supply chain partners improve the financial performance of suppliers. Consistent with the view that supplier–customer cultural similarity facilitates communication, promotes altruistic attitudes, and builds trust between trading partners, we find that culturally similar suppliers experience higher cost efficiency, fewer problems with underinvestment, and better innovation performance. Our results also indicate that cultural similarity benefits customers, although to a lesser extent. Overall, our study sheds new light on how inter-firm cultural similarity influences firm performance along the supply chain.