Knowledge that Transforms

In this paper we use two alternative methods to assess the effects of climate change on the quality of wines from the vineyards of the Mosel Valley in Germany. In the first, structural approach we use a physical model of solar radiation to measure the amount of energy collected by a vineyard and then to establish the econometric relation between energy and vineyard quality. Coupling this hedonic function with the physics of heat and energy permits a calculation of the impact of any temperature change on vineyard quality (and prices). In a second approach, we measure the effect of year-to-year changes in the weather on land or crop values in the same region and use the estimated hedonic equation to measure the effect of temperature change on prices. The empirical results of both analyses indicate that the vineyards of the Mosel Valley will increase in value under a scenario of global warming, and perhaps by a considerable amount.

Shape invariance is a property of demand functions that is widely used for parametric and semiparametric modeling and is associated with a commonly employed class of equivalence scale models used for welfare calculations. This paper derives the set of all shape-invariant demand functions and associated preferences. All previously known shape-invariant demands were derived from utility functions that, up to monotonic transformation, are called IB/ESE (independent of base–equivalence scale exact) utility functions, because they yield IB/ESE equivalence scales. This paper shows that there exist exceptional shape-invariant demands that are not derived from a transform of IB/ESE utility and provides some simple tests for these exceptions. In particular, all the exceptions have rank 2, so any rank 3 or higher demand system is shape invariant if and only if it is derived from a transform of IB/ESE utility.

This study empirically examines the international effects of inflation targeting. Employing a variety of propensity score matching methods, we find strong evidence that inflation targeting has significantly different impacts on exchange rate volatility and international reserves in different country groups. It significantly increases real and nominal exchange rate stability and international reserves in developing countries but lowers them in industrial countries. On average, inflation targeting increases (lowers) reserves roughly by the size of 1.3 (1.8) months of imports values in developing (industrial) countries. The treatment effects on targeting countries' current accounts are found to be insignificant in both country groups.

This paper provides evidence of the presence and relevance of the credit chain propagation and amplification mechanism described by Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) by looking at its implications for the correlation of industries. In particular, it tests the hypothesis that an increase in the use of trade credit, along the input-output chain linking two industries, results in an increase in their output correlation using detailed data on the correlations and input-output relations of 378 manufacturing industry pairs across 43 countries with different degrees of use of trade credit. The results provide strong support for this hypothesis and indicate that the mechanism is quantitatively relevant.

Previous research has interpreted the correlation between per capita income and civil war as evidence that poverty is a main determinant of conflict. In this paper, we find that the relationship between poverty and civil war is spurious and is accounted for by historical phenomena that jointly determine income evolution and conflict. In particular, the statistical association between poverty and civil wars disappears once we include country fixed effects. Also, using cross‐section data for 1960 to 2000, we find that once historical variables like European settler mortality rates and the population density in 1500 are included in civil war regressions, poverty does not have an effect on civil wars. These results are confirmed using longer time series from 1825 to 2000.

In this paper, we examine net emigration from Mexico over the period 1960 to 2000. The data are consistent with labor supply shocks having made a substantial contribution to Mexican emigration, accounting for two-fifths of Mexican labor flows to the United States over the last two decades of the twentieth century. Net emigration rates by Mexican state birth year cohort display a strong positive correlation with the initial size of the Mexican cohort relative to the corresponding U.S. cohort. In states with long histories of emigration, the effects of cohort size on emigration are relatively strong, consistent with the existence of preexisting networks.

Measures of inequality and mobility based on self-reported earnings reflect attributes of both the joint distribution of earnings across time and the joint distribution of measurement error and earnings. While classical measurement error would increase measures of inequality and mobility, there is substantial evidence that measurement error in earnings is not classical. In this paper, we present the analytical links between nonclassical measurement error and some summary measures of inequality and mobility. The empirical importance of nonclassical measurement error is explored using the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) matched to tax records. We find that the effects of nonclassical measurement error are large. However, these nonclassical effects are largely offsetting when estimating mobility, as measured by the intertemporal correlation in earnings. As a result, SIPP estimates of the correlation are similar to estimates based on tax records, though SIPP estimates of inequality are smaller than estimates based on tax records.

This study utilizes changes in the catchment areas of public schools in Vancouver, British Columbia, to measure the residential price capitalization of school quality. Specifications that employ repeat sales methods to control for time-invariant neighborhood effects and disaggregated price indexes to capture time-varying neighborhood price appreciation reveal significant effects of secondary school performance on residential prices. However, when we add controls for long-run price trends in rezoned areas, only prices of residences likely to be purchased by high-income families appear to have been affected by changes in school quality induced by rezoning.

We study strategic choice of effort in best-of-three contests between equally skilled players. Economic theory predicts such contests are more likely to end in two rounds than in three. If, however, a contest reaches a third round, each player is equally likely to win. We test these predictions with data from professional tennis matches, using betting odds to identify equally skilled opponents. The empirical results support the theoretical predictions, suggesting players strategically adjust efforts during a best-of-three contest.

We examine peer effects in early education by estimating value-added models with school fixed effects that control extensively for individual, family, peer, and teacher characteristics to account for the endogeneity of peer group formation. We find statistically significant and robust spillover effects from preschool on math and reading outcomes, but statistically insignificant effects on various behavioral and social outcomes. We also find that peer externalizing problems, which most likely capture classroom disturbance, hinder cognitive outcomes. Our estimates imply that ignoring spillover effects significantly understates the social returns to preschool.