Knowledge that Transforms

Michigan’s implementation of assessment limits gives rise to a wide variation in taxable basis across comparable homes. Exploiting the fact that the resulting differences in property tax liability are temporarily inherited by new homebuyers, I estimate the degree of capitalization of these largely idiosyncratic tax differences to evaluate whether homebuyers understand the tax implications of their home purchases. Consistent with anecdotal evidence but in stark contrast to the traditional view of rational consumer behavior, I find that homebuyers are woefully inattentive to the temporary nature of their initial tax obligations, resulting in an overpayment of nearly $10,000 for the average home.

We establish methods that improve the predictions of macroeconometric models—dynamic factor models, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, and vector autoregressions—using a quarterly U.S. data set. We measure prediction quality with one-step-ahead probability densities assigned in real time. Two steps lead to substantial improvements: (a) the use of full Bayesian predictive distributions rather than conditioning on the posterior mode for parameters and (b) the use of an equally weighted pool.

In order to measure the effect of tax credits on private R&D investment, researchers confront the difficult problem of finding an exogenous measure of tax policy that exhibits sufficient variation to support robust identification. This paper takes a new approach based on exploiting differences in the average capital-labor ratio of R&D investment across industries and variation in the tax treatment of different expenditure types across countries and over time. The estimated short-run elasticity is 0.50 which is somewhat more than double previous estimates derived from cross-country analysis.

Temporary overseas work can both raise a family's income and split the household geographically, with theoretically ambiguous net effects on spending, finance, and labor supply decisions. We study a policy discontinuity in the Philippines that quasi-randomly assigned temporary, partial-household migration for high-wage jobs inKorea. This allows quasiexperimental estimates of reduced-form effects of migration. We find that migration causes large changes in households' spending and saving—not only through remittances but also migration-induced shifts in household decision-making power. Migration does not reduce labor supply by nonmigrants. Common nonexperimental estimators would have been subject to substantial selection bias in this setting.

How does a shock to sex ratios affect marriage markets and fertility? I use the drastic change in sex ratios caused by World War II to identify the effects of unbalanced sex ratios on Russian women. Using unique archival data, the results indicate that male scarcity led to lower rates of marriage and fertility, higher nonmarital births, and reduced bargaining power within marriage for women most affected by war deaths. The impact of sex ratio imbalance on marriage and family persisted for years after the war's end and was likely magnified by policies that promoted nonmarital births and discouraged divorce.

This study examines household portfolio choice through the retirement transition. I show that couples significantly decrease their stock allocations after retirement, whereas singles’ allocations remain relatively unchanged. Reallocations are concentrated among couples in which the wife is more risk averse than her husband. Husbands’ and wives’ respective retirement events are followed by opposite-signed changes in stock allocations. These findings are consistent with a model of collective household decision making in which spouses have heterogeneous risk preferences, and suggest that dynamics in the distribution of intrahousehold bargaining power generate time-varying household risk aversion.

We evaluate the effect that payday loan access has on credit and labor market outcomes of individuals in the U.S. Army. Using the conditional random assignment of service members to different locations, we employ three identification strategies: cross-sectional variation in state policies, within-term variation in payday lending access, and a difference-in-difference analysis using the national Military Lending Act. We find few adverse effects of payday loan access on service members when using any of these methods, even when we examine dozens of subsamples that explore potential differential treatment effects.

Spending on big-time college athletics is often justified on the grounds that athletic success attracts students and raises donations. We exploit data on bookmaker spreads to estimate the probability of winning each game for college football teams. We then condition on these probabilities using a propensity score design to estimate the effects of winning on donations, applications, and enrollment. The resulting estimates represent causal effects under the assumption that, conditional on bookmaker spreads, winning is uncorrelated with potential outcomes. We find that winning reduces acceptance rates and increases donations, applications, academic reputation, in-state enrollment, and incoming SAT scores.

Policies to correct market power and selection can be misguided when these forces coexist. We build a model of symmetric imperfect competition in selection markets that parameterizes the degree of market power and selection. We use graphical price-theoretic reasoning to characterize the interaction between these forces. Using a calibrated model of health insurance, we show that the risk adjustment commonly used to offset adverse selection can reduce coverage and social surplus. Conversely, in a calibrated model of subprime auto lending, realistic levels of competition can generate an oversupply of credit, implying that greater market power is desirable.

Using unique consumer financial transactions of more than 56,000 consumers, we study the consumption response to a housing policy experiment in Singapore that resulted in a decrease in access to home equity. Using difference-in-differences analysis, we find a significant negative consumption response to the policy shock. Moreover, the consumption response is concentrated in credit card spending and is stronger among individuals with limited access to credit market or with a high precautionary saving motive. These results suggest that a decrease in access to home equity reduces the role of housing as a self-insurance mechanism for consumption smoothing.