Knowledge that Transforms

This study assesses whether workplace pensions help individuals overcome knowledge barriers to saving for retirement. Using administrative data from Canada and exploiting unique features of the pension system, I find compelling evidence that each $1 contributed to workplace pensions partially crowds out other retirement saving by approximately $0.50—among interior savers—in a regression kink design, centering on unionized workers for methodological reasons. Further analysis indicates that active versus passive decisions are influenced by education, exploiting compulsory schooling reforms for identification. I conclude by showing that pension and education reform are both viable mechanisms for boosting saving from a life cycle perspective.

We develop and estimate a general equilibrium model to assess the effects and welfare implications of central bank transparency. Monetary policy can deviate from active inflation stabilization, and agents conduct Bayesian learning about the nature of these deviations. Under constrained discretion, only short deviations occur, agents’ uncertainty about the macroeconomy remains contained, and welfare is high. However, if a deviation persists, uncertainty eventually accelerates and welfare declines. Announcing that inflation stabilization will be temporarily abandoned raises uncertainty. However, these announcements lower policy uncertainty and curb inflationary beliefs at the end of the policy. For the United States, enhancing transparency raises welfare.

This paper exploits policy discontinuities at U.S. state borders to examine the effect of R&D investments on innovative projects. We examine the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) State Match program, which offers noncompetitive grants to federally awarded SBIR Phase I projects that are eligible to compete for Phase II. Results from SBIR activity (2002–2010) indicate heterogeneous treatment effects. Notably, the positive differential effects are moderated by firms within the science and health fields and with less previous SBIR success. The State Match effectively stabilized Phase II trends in contrast to neighboring states that experienced greater declines from the concurrent recession.

We propose that individuals are more politically active in more like-minded social environments. To test this hypothesis, we combine administrative data from the Federal Election Commission and the U.S. Postal Service. We identify 45,000 individuals who contributed to Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign and changed residences either before or after the 2012 election cycle.We examine whether living in an area with a higher share of Democrats causes higher contributions to Obama. We find that conformity effects are economically significant. Additionally, we conduct counterfactual analysis that shows that these effects are important for understanding geographic polarization.

This paper discusses testable implications of rank invariance or rank similarity, assumptions that are common in program evaluation and in the quantile treatment effect (QTE) literature. We nonparametrically identify, estimate, and test the counterfactual distribution of potential ranks, or features of the distribution. The proposed tests allow treatment to be endogenous, with exogenous treatment following as a special case. The tests essentially do not require any additional assumptions other than those to identify and estimate QTEs. We apply the proposed tests to investigate whether the Job Training Partnership Act training causes trainees to systematically change their ranks in the earnings distribution.

We introduce a test of the rank invariance or rank similarity assumption common in treatment effects and instrumental variables models. The test probes the implication that the conditional distribution of ranks should be identical across treatment states using a regression-based test statistic. We apply the test to data from the Tennessee STAR class-size reduction experiment and show that systematic slippages in rank can be important statistically and economically.

We report three findings. First, using evidence from chain bankruptcies and data on 12 million to 18 million establishments per year, we show that large retailers produce significant positive spillovers. Second, local governments respond to the size of these externalities. When a town’s boundaries allow it to capture a larger share of retail spillovers, it is more likely to offer retail subsidies. Third, these subsidies partially crowd out private sector mechanisms that also subsidize large retailers, such as shopping malls. These facts provide powerful evidence of the Coase theorem at work and highlight a concern for local development policies even when externalities can be targeted.

Political agency models suggest that elected public officials choose different policies than appointed officials do. This paper is the first (a) to apply a clean empirical design to study whether the selection rule has a causal effect on public officials’ policy choices and (b) to investigate transmission channels. I exploit a unique setting in Germany, where a reform has created quasi-experimental variation in the selection rule for mayors. As the outcome variable, I use data on grant receipts for highly visible investment projects for which mayors must apply to the state government. Elected mayors attract 7% to 7.4% more grants in election years; for appointed mayors, there is no cycle. Using hand-collected data on mayor characteristics, I find suggestive evidence that although the selection of mayors changes following the reform studied, a likely reason for the observed cycle is that elected mayors have stronger electoral incentives.

This paper quantifies the effects of Russia’s 1981 expansion in maternity benefits on completed childbearing. The program provided one year of partially paid parental leave and a small cash transfer upon a child’s birth. I exploit the program’s two-stage implementation and find evidence that women had more children as a result of the program. Fertility rates rose immediately by 8.2% over twelve months. The increase in fertility rates not only persisted for the ten-year duration of the program, but it reflected large increases in higher-order births to older women who already had children before the program started.

We estimate the first cross-sectional index of transaction-based land values for every U.S. metropolitan area. The index accounts for geographic selection and incorporates novel shrinkage methods using a prior belief based on urban economic theory. Land values at the city center increase with city size, as do land-value gradients; both are highly variable across cities. Urban land values are estimated at more than two times GDP in 2006. These estimates are higher and less volatile than estimates from residual (total - structure) methods. Five urban agglomerations account for 48% of all urban land value in the United States.