Knowledge that Transforms

This paper introduces a semiparametric estimation method for Polychotomous Choice models. The method does not require a parametric structure for the systematic subutility of observable exogenous variables. The distribution of the random terms is assumed to be known up to a finite-dimensional parameter vector. In contrast, previous semiparametric methods of estimating discrete choice models have concentrated on relaxing parametric subutility parametrically specified. The systematic subutility is assumed to possess properties such as monotonicity and concavity that are typically assumed in microeconomic theory. The estimator for the systematic subutility and the parameter vector of the distribution is shown to be strongly consistent. A computational technique to calculate the estimators is developed. Copyright 1991 by The Econometric Society.

This paper establishes the asymptotic normality of series estimators for nonparametric regression models. Gallant's Fourier flexible form estimators, trigonometric series estimators, and polynomial series estimators are prime examples of the estimators covered by the results. The results apply to a wide variety of estimates in the regression model under consideration, including derivatives and integrals of the regression function. The errors in the model may be homoskedastic or heteroskedastic. The paper also considers series estimators for additive interactive regression, semiparametric regression, and semiparametric index regression models, and shows them to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Copyright 1991 by The Econometric Society.

The authors describe a model of general equilibrium with incomplete markets in which firms can innovate by issuing arbitrary, costly securities. When short sales are prohibited, firms behave competitively and equilibrium is efficient. When short sales are allowed, these classical properties may fail. If unlimited short sales are allowed, imperfect competition may persist even when the number of potential innovators is large. If limited short sales are allowed, perfect competition may obtain in the limit, but equilibrium can be inefficient because of the presence of an externality: the private benefits of innovation for firms differ from the social benefits. Copyright 1991 by The Econometric Society.

ABSTRACT A positive slope of the yield curve is associated with a future increase in real economic activity: consumption (nondurables plus services), consumer durables, and investment. It has extra predictive power over the index of leading indicators, real short‐term interest rates, lagged growth in economic activity, and lagged rates of inflation. It outperforms survey forecasts, both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample. Historically, the information in the slope reflected, inter alia , factors that were independent of monetary policy, and thus the slope could have provided useful information both to private investors and to policy makers.

Section I: Introductin to Finance and the Mathematics of Continuous-Time Models 1 Modern Finance 2 Introduction to Portfolio Selection and Capital Market Theory: Static Analysis 3 On the Mathematics and Economic Assumptions of Continuous-Time Financial Models Section II: Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Selection in Continuous-Time Models 4. Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case 5. Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-Time Model 6. Further Developments in theory of Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Selection Section III: Warrant and Option Pricing Theory 7. A Complete Model of Warrant Pricing the Maximizes Utility 8. Theory of Rational Option Pricing 9. Option Pricing when Underlying Stock Returns are Discontinuous 10. Further Developments in Option Pricing Theory Section IV: Contingent-Claims Analysis in the Theory of Corporate Finance and Financial Intermediation 11. A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Asset Market and its Application to the Pricing of the Capital Structure of the Firm 12. On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates 13. On the Pricing of Contingent Claims and the Modigliani-Miller Theorem 14. Contingent Claims Analysis in the Theory of Corporate Finance and Financial Intermediation Section V: An Intertemporal-Equilibrium Theory of Finance 15. An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model 16. A General Equilibrium Theory of Finance in Continuous-Time Section VI: Applications of the Continuous-Time Model to Selected Issues in Public Finance 17. An Asymptotic Theory of Growth Under Uncertainty 18. On Consumption-Indexed Public Pension Plans 19. An Analytic Derivation of the Cost of Loan Guarantees and Deposit Insurance 20. On the Cost of Deposit Insurance when there are Surveillance Costs

ABSTRACT This paper suggests that the interactions of security trades and quote revisions be modeled as a vector autoregressive system. Within this framework, a trade's information effect may be meaningfully measured as the ultimate price impact of the trade innovation. Estimates for a sample of NYSE issues suggest: a trade's full price impact arrives only with a protracted lag; the impact is a positive and concave function of the trade size; large trades cause the spread to widen; trades occurring in the face of wide spreads have larger price impacts; and, information asymmetries are more significant for smaller firms.

ABSTRACT This paper provides support for the certification role of venture capitalists in initial public offerings. Consistent with the certification hypothesis, a comparison of venture capital backed IPOs with a control sample of nonventure capital backed IPOs from 1983 through 1987 matched as closely as possible by industry and offering size indicates that venture capital backing results in significantly lower initial returns and gross spreads. In effect, the presence of venture capitalists in the issuing firms serves to lower the total costs of going public and to maximize the net proceeds to the offering firm. In addition, we document that venture capitalists retain a significant portion of their holdings in the firm after the IPO.

ABSTRACT This paper evaluates alternative methods for classifying individual trades as market buy or market sell orders using intraday trade and quote data. We document two potential problems with quote‐based methods of trade classification: quotes may be recorded ahead of trades that triggered them, and trades inside the spread are not readily classifiable. These problems are analyzed in the context of the interaction between exchange floor agents. We then propose and test relatively simple procedures for improving trade classifications.

ABSTRACT This paper shows that revealing public information to reduce information asymmetry can reduce a firm's cost of capital by attracting increased demand from large investors due to increased liquidity of its securities. Large firms will disclose more information since they benefit most. Disclosure also reduces the risk bearing capacity available through market makers. If initial information asymmetry is large, reducing it will increase the current price of the security. However, the maximum current price occurs with some asymmetry of information: further reduction of information asymmetry accentuates the undesirable effects of exit from market making.

ABSTRACT This paper surveys capital structure theories based on agency costs, asymmetric information, product/input market interactions, and corporate control considerations (but excluding tax‐based theories). For each type of model, a brief overview of the papers surveyed and their relation to each other is provided. The central papers are described in some detail, and their results are summarized and followed by a discussion of related extensions. Each section concludes with a summary of the main implications of the models surveyed in the section. Finally, these results are collected and compared to the available evidence. Suggestions for future research are provided.