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Altruism, the Samaritan's dilemma, and government transfer policy

American Economic Review 1995
This paper shows that altruism provides an efficiency rationale for public provision of insurance to the poor. The framework is one in which there are rich altruists and risk-averse poor who face some possibility of loss. The government represents the rich and makes transfers on their behalf. With unconditional transfers, the poor may forgo insurance and rely on private charity to bail them out in the event of loss. This reliance on private charity has adverse efficiency effects. These may be avoided if the government makes in-kind transfers of insurance.

Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycles Models

American Economic Review 1995
The time-series literature reports two stylized facts about output dynamics in the United States: GNP growth is positively autocorrelated, and GNP appears to have an important trend-reverting component. This paper investigates whether current real-business-cycle (RBC) models are consistent with these stylized facts. Many RBC models have weak internal propagation mechanisms and must rely on external sources of dynamics to replicate both facts. Models that incorporate labor adjustment costs are partially successful. They endogenously generate positive autocorrelation in output growth, but they need implausibly large transitory shocks to match the trend-reverting component in output.

Homegrown Values and Hypothetical Surveys: Is the Dichotomous Choice Approach Incentive-Compatible?

American Economic Review 1995
The use of dichotomous choice (DC) methods has become increasingly common in applications of the contingent-valuation method (CVM)1 to elicit the that an individual might have for nonmarket environmental goods.2 This hypothetical DC method involves a subject responding yes or no to a hypothetical question that asks whether or not he would be willing to make a commitment to pay some stated amount contingent upon the provision of an environmental good. The growing use of this method is primarily based on the assumption that the method yields incentive-compatible results. This implies that subjects will answer the CVM's hypothetical question in the same way as they would answer an identical question asking for a real economic commitment and that, therefore, the hypothetical DC method will result in accurate estimates of true willingness to pay. Explicit or implicit acceptance of this assumption is seen in a number of recent studies. For example, the use of the DC method in CVM studies is strongly recommended by a panel3 convened by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States Department of Commerce to examine the use of hypothetical CVM survey questions (see NOAA, 1993 pp. 4608, 4608, 4612). The hypothetical DC method has been used by the Attorney General of the State of Alaska in a major application of the CVM to assess damages caused by the Exxon Valdez oil spill of 1989 (see Richard T. Carson et al., 1992). A major CVM study of potential environmental damages due to proposed mining activity in the Kakadu Conservation Zone of Australia employed the DC method with a similar rationale (see David Imber et al., 1991 p. vi). It is clear that if a subject perceives that his expected utility is affected by the possibility of the good actually being provided he has no incentive to misrepresent. We can presume that in an application of a real DC method, where payment and provision of * Cummings: Policy Research Center, College of Business Administration, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303-3083; Harrison and Rutstr6m: Department of Economics, College of Business Administration, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208. We are grateful to Peter Bohm, Bengt Kristr6m, and three referees for helpful comments. Ashley Abbott, Lloyd Brown, Colin Day, Tanga McDaniel, Helen Neill, and Melonie Williams provided excellent research assistance. We acknowledge financial support provided by the State of New Mexico's Waste Management Education and Research Consortium and Resources for the Future. We retain responsibility for all errors. 'For a critical review of the debate over the CVM, see Cummings and Harrison (1994) 2Homegrown is a term primarily used in experimental economics. It refers to a subject's value that is independent of the value which an experimenter might induce for the good (see Vernon L. Smith, 1976). The idea is that homegrown values are those that the subject brings to an experiment. 3Consisting of Kenneth Arrow (Co-chair), Robert Solow (Co-chair), Paul R. Portney, Edward E. Leamer, Roy Radner, and Howard Schuman.

Capital Structure and Product-Market Competition: Empirical Evidence from the Supermarket Industry

American Economic Review 1995
This paper establishes an empirical link between firm capital structure and product-market competition using data from local supermarket competition. First, an event-study analysis of supermarket leveraged buyouts (LBOs) suggests that a LBO announcement increases the market value of the LBO chain's local rivals. Second, the author shows that supermarket chains were more likely to enter and expand in a local market if a large share of the incumbent firms in the local market undertook LBOs. The study suggests that leverage increases in the late 1980s led to softer product-market competition in this industry.

Race and Gender Discrimination in Bargaining for a New Car

American Economic Review 1995
More than three hundred paired audits at new-car dealerships reveal that dealers quoted significantly lower prices to white males than to black or female test buyers using identical, scripted bargaining strategies. Ancillary evidence suggests that the dealerships' disparate treatment of women and blacks may be caused by dealers' statistical inferences about consumers' reservation prices, but the data do not strongly support any single theory of discrimination.

Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: Explaining international

American Economic Review 1995
Trade on international financial markets allows people to insure country-specific risk and smooth consumption intertemporally. Equilibrium models of business cycles with trade on global financial markets typically yield international consumption correlations near one and excessive volatility of investment. The authors incorporate nontraded goods in the model and find that the implications for aggregate consumption, investment, and the trade balance are consistent with business-cycle properties of industrialized countries. However, the model driven by technology shocks alone yields counterfactual implications for comovements between consumption and prices at the sectoral level. Taste shocks produce price-quantity relationships more consistent with the data.

Labor-Market Returns to Two- and Four-Year College

American Economic Review 1995
The paper examines labor-market returns to a two- and four-year college education. Analysis of the 1972 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth; Observation that the average person who attended a two-year college earned about 10-percent more than those without any college education; Comparison with the wages of those who attended a four-year college education.

The Case of the Missing Trade and Other Mysteries

American Economic Review 1995
The Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theorem, which predicts that countries will export products that are made from factors in great supply, performs poorly. However, deviations from HOV follow pronounced patterns. Trade is missing relative to its HOV prediction. Also, rich countries appear scarce in most factors and poor countries appear abundant in all factors, a fact that squares poorly with the HOV prediction that abundant factors are exported. As suggested by the patterns, HOV is rejected empirically in favor of a modification that allows for home bias in consumption and international technology differences.

Cooperation in Public-Goods Experiments: Kindness or Confusion?

American Economic Review 1995
The persistence of cooperation in public-goods experiments has become an important puzzle for economists. This paper presents the first systematic attempt to separate the hypothesis that cooperation is due to kindness, altruism, or warm-glow from the hypothesis that cooperation is simply the result of errors or confusion. The experiment reveals that, on average, about half of all cooperation comes from subjects who understand free-riding but choose to cooperate out of some form of kindness. This suggests that the focus on errors and 'learning' in experimental research should shift to include studies of preferences for cooperation as well.

Exchange rates and fundamentals: Evidence on long-horizon predictability

American Economic Review 1995
Regressions of multiple-period changes in the log exchange rate on the deviation of the log exchange rate from its 'fundamental value' display evidence that long-horizon changes in log nominal exchange rates contain an economically significant predictable component. To account for small-sample bias and size distortion in asymptotic tests, inference is drawn from bootstrap distributions generated under the null hypothesis that the log exchange rate is unpredictable. The bias-adjusted slope coefficients and R[superscript]2's increase with the forecast horizon, and the out-of-sample point predictions generally outperform the driftless random walk at the longer horizons.