Knowledge that Transforms

This study explores the relationship between legalized sports gambling, unexpected emotional cues stemming from NFL home team upset losses and reported intimate partner violence (IPV). Using 1995–2022 crime data from NIBRS, replicating and extending Card and Dahl (2011)’s model, we find that legalized gambling increases the impact of upset losses on IPV by 10 percentage points. The e!ect is larger in states with mobile betting, where higher bets were placed, around paydays, and for teams on a winning streak. These results suggest that financial losses from gambling amplify emotional reactions to unexpected team losses.

We develop a new test for conditional moment restrictions via nonparametric series regression, with approximating functions selected by Lasso. A key novelty of our approach is to account for the effect of the data-driven selection, yielding a new critical value constructed on the basis of a nonstandard truncated-Gaussian asymptotic approximation. We show that the test is correctly sized and attains a well-defined sense of adaptiveness that may result in better power than existing methods. The improvement afforded by the new test is demonstrated in a Monte Carlo study and an empirical application on the conditional evaluation of inflation forecasts.

This paper documents the bias introduced by attrition of individuals from administrative data with an application to the labor market consequences of postsecondary education. Attrition due to crossstate migration is non-trivial, particularly for high-earners, graduates from selective universities, and certain majors. Consequently, the premium associated with graduating from a most selective university is 23% higher than in-state earnings suggests, though this magnitude differs across context. The impact of obtaining a 2-year CTE credential is also understated, as are earnings differences across majors. Differences in missingness are systematically related to bias in measurement; we evaluate approaches to quantifying that bias.

We study how public school teachers use paid sick leave. Most US sick leave schemes operate as individualized credit accounts: Paid leave is earned, and unused leave accumulates. We construct a unique dataset of daily leave balances and behavior among 982 teachers for 2010–2018. Sick leave use increases during flu season, and evidence indicates that the average teacher does not use sick leave for leisure, though some subsets of teachers (e.g., the young and inexperienced) do. Usage increases with leave balance; the elasticity is around 0.4. Further, teachers with higher balances are less likely to work sick, particularly during flu season.

We develop, validate, and quantify a tractable model of multinational firms that connects multinational production (MP) with foreign direct investment (FDI). Firms choose where to produce and how to finance the production. They can access external finance, but capital market imperfections prevent them from relying exclusively on it for affiliate production, giving rise to FDI. The model rationalizes the three-way relationship between MP, FDI, and financial market conditions that we document and leads to novel welfare implications. Quantification of the model highlights the relevance of these welfare implications and the importance of financial factors in shaping the activities of multinationals.

We show that firms that face higher uncertainty adjust their investment less in response to monetary policy shocks. We find corroborating evidence of this differential effect from firm-level stock returns on FOMC announcement days. Our results are consistent with a real options (or wait-and-see) channel whereby higher uncertainty dampens the response to changes in business conditions. Consistent with this mechanism, the dampening effect is stronger for firms that face higher reversibility.

We present a new data set we built based on Swiss rich lists going back to 1989. We show, among other things, that 60% of the super-rich are heirs—a fraction twice as large as in the United States—and that wealth mobility at the very top has declined significantly. We find that top 0.01% wealth shares are higher than what previous estimates based on wealth tax statistics suggest. At the same time, we argue that rich list data lead to overestimating wealth inequality. Although rich lists are valuable to study the super-rich, we recommend using reported wealth figures with caution.

Aggregate and sectoral effects of public investment crucially depend on the interaction between the output elasticity to public capital and intermediate inputs. We uncover this fact through the lens of a New Keynesian production network. This setting doubles the socially optimal amount of public capital relative to the one-sector model without intermediate inputs, leading to a substantial amplification of the public-investment multiplier. We also document novel sectoral implications of public investment. Although public investment is concentrated in far fewer sectors than public consumption, its effects are relatively more evenly distributed across industries. We validate this model implication in the data.

In the U.S. airline industry, independent regional airlines fly passengers on behalf of several national airlines across different markets, giving rise to common subcontracting. On the one hand, we find that subcontracting is associated with lower prices, consistent with the notion that regional airlines tend to fly passengers at lower costs than major airlines. On the other hand, we find that common subcontracting is associated with higher prices. These two countervailing effects suggest that the growth of regional airlines can have anticompetitive implications for the industry.

We experimentally evaluate group-based financial education, savings account access, or both for members of Ugandan youth groups. We measure both short- and long-run impacts with one- and five-year endline household surveys. Education, but not account access, increases measured financial knowledge and trust at one year. At five years, knowledge effects essentially disappear, and trust effects weaken. However, savings and income increase for each treatment at both endlines, which is noteworthy given the interventions’ low cost and the long time horizon of our second endline. Exploring potential mechanisms, we find evidence consistent with multiple pathways to behavior change and outcome improvement.