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Value of strategic alliances: Evidence from the bond market

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 42, 42-59
The objective of this study is to examine the relationship between strategic alliances and the cost of debt, proxied by the at-issue yield spread of bond offerings. We hypothesize that the participation of strategic alliances lowers a firm’s cost of debt because it improves the level and stability of future profit streams and reduces information asymmetry among investors. Based on 2150 bond-issuing firms during the period 1985–2009, we find evidence consistent with this argument. Furthermore, we find that the mitigating effect of strategic alliances on the debt cost is much more pronounced for firms with higher product market competition, more severe financial constraints, and greater R&D investments. Taken together, this is the first paper to examine the importance of strategic alliances in the bond market and our results highlight that corporate alliance activity is valued outside the equity market and creates additional benefits that result in lower cost of debt financing.

A re-examination of exposure to exchange rate risk: The impact of earnings management and currency derivative usage

Journal of Banking & Finance 2013 37(8), 3243-3257
In an attempt to explain the weak evidence of priced exchange rate risk, we hypothesize that in addition to currency derivative usages, earnings management serves as another factor contributing to a reduction in exchange rate exposure. Our evidence reveals that earnings management activities, particularly those undertaken for the purpose of income smoothing, significantly reduce firm-specific exchange rate exposure, and that such role is particularly important if appropriate currency derivative instruments are limited. These results complement prior attempts to explain the puzzle of unpriced exchange rate risk. The investigation also highlights the importance of recognizing different managerial purposes behind discretionary accruals.

What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us about Exchange Rate Predictability?

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2013 95(1), 185-205
Since the term structure of interest rates embodies information about future economic activity, we extract relative Nelson-Siegel (1987) factors from cross-country yield curve differences to proxy expected movements in future exchange rate fundamentals. Using monthly data for the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, and the United States, we show that the yield curve factors predict exchange rate movements and explain excess currency returns one month to two years ahead. Our results provide support for the asset pricing formulation of exchange rate determination and offer an intuitive explanation to the uncovered interest parity puzzle by relating currency risk premiums to inflation and business cycle risks.

Open-market stock repurchase announcements and revaluation...

The Accounting Review 1997 72(3), 475-487
This study finds that, for a sample of 335 open-market repurchase announcements during 1978 to 1992, the market reaction to the announcement is significantly associated with the firm's sales growth and accounting profitability in prior periods. This result holds after controlling for two known correlates of the market response, the announced fraction to be repurchased and prior returns. This result is consistent with the market reinterpreting previously released accounting information when interpreting a subsequent repurchase announcement by the firm. Further, the association between the market response and prior accounting information is more pronounced for firms that are smaller in size or have fewer analysts following them. This suggests that the degree of reinterpretation of prior accounting information at the time of the repurchase announcement increases in the information asymmetry between managers and investors.

New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2024 139(3), 1399-1465
We answer three core questions about the hypothesized role of newly emerging job categories (“new work”) in counterbalancing the erosive effect of task-displacing automation on labor demand: what is the substantive content of new work, where does it come from, and what effect does it have on labor demand? We construct a novel database spanning eight decades of new job titles linked to U.S. Census microdata and to patent-based measures of occupations’ exposure to labor-augmenting and labor-automating innovations. The majority of current employment is in new job specialties introduced since 1940, but the locus of new-work creation has shifted from middle-paid production and clerical occupations over 1940–1980 to high-paid professional occupations and secondarily to low-paid services since 1980. New work emerges in response to technological innovations that complement the outputs of occupations and demand shocks that raise occupational demand. Innovations that automate tasks or reduce occupational demand slow new-work emergence. Although the flow of augmentation and automation innovations is positively correlated across occupations, the former boosts occupational labor demand while the latter depresses it. The demand-eroding effects of automation innovations have intensified in the past four decades while the demand-increasing effects of augmentation innovations have not.

Insider trading, stock return volatility, and the option market's pricing of the information content of insider trading

Journal of Banking & Finance 2017 76, 65-73
We find strong evidence that net insider selling is positively associated with future stock return volatility, consistent with insider selling increasing outside investors’ uncertainty. The positive effect of net insider selling is significantly stronger when the volatility is measured around the earnings announcement. Apparently, option prices do not fully reflect the information content of insider trading for future volatility. More specifically, we find no evidence that option traders adjust the implied volatility for the insider trading effect in a timely manner. Consequently, net insider selling is significantly associated with future option straddle returns and delta neutral returns.

Trend definition or holding strategy: What determines the profitability of candlestick charting?

Journal of Banking & Finance 2015 61, 172-183
We ask what determines the profitability of candlestick trading strategies. Is it the definition of trend and/or the holding strategy that one uses in candlestick charting analysis? To answer this, we systematically consider three definitions of trend and four holding strategies. Applying candlestick trading strategies to the DJIA component data, we find that regardless of which definition of trend is used, eight three-day reversal patterns with a Caginalp–Laurent holding strategy are profitable when we set the transaction cost at 0.5% and after we account for data-snooping bias, while the patterns with a Marshall–Young–Rose holding strategy are not profitable. For sensitivity analysis, we also find that our results are not qualitatively changed on a lower transaction cost of 0.1%, or when we conduct the subsample analyses based on three equal periods and three distinct market conditions. When considering a more volatile market, evidence in favor of candlestick trading strategies is strengthened.

The determinants of bank loan recovery rates

Journal of Banking & Finance 2012 36(4), 923-933
Using Moody’s Ultimate Recovery Database, we estimate a model for bank loan recoveries using variables reflecting loan and borrower characteristics, industry and macroeconomic conditions, and several recovery process variables. We find that loan characteristics are more significant determinants of recovery rates than are borrower characteristics prior to default. Industry and macroeconomic conditions are relevant, as are prepackaged bankruptcy arrangements. We examine whether a commonly used proxy for recovery rates, the 30-day post-default trading price of the loan, represents an efficient estimate of actual recoveries and find that such a proxy is biased and inefficient.

Technical Change and the Demand for Skills during the Second Industrial Revolution: Evidence from the Merchant Marine, 1891–1912

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2006 88(3), 572-578
Using a large, individual-level wage data set, we examine the impact of a major technological innovation—the steam engine—on the demand for skills in the merchant shipping industry. We find that the technical change created a new demand for engineers, a skilled occupation. It had a deskilling effect on production work—moderately skilled able-bodied seamen were replaced by unskilled engine room operatives. On the other hand, able-bodied seamen, carpenters, and mates employed on steam vessels earned a premium relative to their counterparts on sail vessels, and this appears partly related to skill.

Does revenue momentum drive or ride earnings or price momentum?

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 38, 166-185
This paper examines the profits of revenue, earnings, and price momentum strategies in an attempt to understand investor reactions when facing multiple information of firm performance in various scenarios. We first offer evidence that there is no dominating momentum strategy among the revenue, earnings, and price momentums, suggesting that revenue surprises, earnings surprises, and prior returns each carry some exclusive unpriced information content. We next show that the profits of momentum driven by firm fundamental performance information (revenue or earnings) depend upon the accompanying firm market performance information (price), and vice versa. The robust monotonicity in multivariate momentum returns is consistent with the argument that the market does not only underestimate the individual information but also the joint implications of multiple information on firm performance, particularly when they point in the same direction. A three-way combined momentum strategy may offer monthly return as high as 1.44%. The information conveyed by revenue surprises and earnings surprises combined account for about 19% of price momentum effects, which finding adds to the large literature on tracing the sources of price momentum.