Knowledge that Transforms

How important is monopolistic competition to an understanding of the effects of aggregate demand on output? The authors ask this question at three levels. Can monopolistic competition, by itself, explain why aggregate demand affects output? Can it, together with other imperfections, generate effects of aggregate demand in a way that perfect competition cannot? If so, can it give an accurate account of the res ponse of the economy to aggregate demand movements? The answers are no, yes, and yes.

Current 1 -year forward rates on 1 - to 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds are information about the current term structure of 1-year expected returns on the bonds, and forward rates track variation through time in 1-year expected returns. More interesting, 1 -year forward rates forecast changes in the 1 -year interest rate 2- to l-years ahead, and forecast power increases with the forecast horizon. We attribute this forecast power to a mean-reverting tendency in the 1-year interest rate