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Econometric Gaming: A Kit for Computer Analysis of Macroeconomic Models
The Cost of the National Health Service in England and Wales
Fiscal Policy in an Expectations-Driven Liquidity Trap
We study the effects of fiscal policy interventions in a liquidity trap in a model with nominal rigidities and an interest rate rule. In a liquidity trap caused by a self-fulfilling state of low confidence, higher government spending has deflationary effects that reduce the spending multiplier when the zero lower bound is binding. Instead, cuts in marginal labour tax rates are inflationary and become more expansionary when the zero lower bound is binding. These findings contradict a popular view, based on a liquidity trap caused by a fundamental shock such as a taste shock, that higher government spending is inflationary and can therefore be associated with large multipliers at the zero lower bound, while lower marginal tax rates are deflationary and therefore counterproductive.
Sales Talk, Cancellation Terms and the Role of Consumer Protection
This article analyses contract cancellation and product return policies in markets in which sellers advise customers about the suitability of their offering. When customers are fully rational, it is optimal for sellers to offer the right to cancel or return on favourable terms. A generous return policy makes the seller's “cheap talk” at the point of sale credible. This observation provides a possible explanation for the excess refund puzzle and also has implications for the management of customer reviews. When customers are credulous, instead, sellers have an incentive to set unfavourable terms to exploit the inflated beliefs they induce in their customers. The imposition of a minimum statutory standard improves welfare and consumer surplus when customers are credulous. In contrast, competition policy reduces contractual inefficiencies with rational customers, but it is not effective with credulous customers.
Audit category knowledge as a precondition to learning from experience
Are Internal capital Markets Efficient?
Using segment information from Compustat, we find that the investment by a segment of a diversified firm depends on the cash flow of the firm's other segments, but significantly less than it depends on its own cash flow. The investment by segments of highly diversified firms is less sensitive to their cash flow than the investment of comparable single-segment firms. The sensitivity of a segment's investment to the cash flow of other segments does not depend on whether its investment opportunities are better than those of the firm's other segments.
Finishing High School and Starting College: Do Catholic Schools Make a Difference?
In this paper, we consider two measures of the relative effectiveness of public and Catholic schools: finishing high school and starting college. These measures are potentially more important indicators of school quality than standardized test scores in light of the economic consequences of obtaining more education. Single-equation estimates suggest that for the typical student, attending a Catholic high school raises the probability of finishing high school or entering a four-year college by thirteen percentage points. In bivariate probit models we find almost no evidence that our single-equation estimates are subject to selection bias.
North-South Trade and the Environment
A simple static model of North-South trade is developed to examine linkages between national income, pollution, and international trade. Two countries produce a continuum of goods, each differing in pollution intensity. We show that the higher income country chooses stronger environmental protection, and specializes in relatively clean goods. By isolating the scale, composition, and technique effects of international trade on pollution, we show that free trade increases world pollution; an increase in the rich North's production possibilities increases pollution, while similar growth in the poor South lowers pollution; and unilateral transfers from North to South reduce worldwide pollution.
Selection in the Market for Slaves: New Orleans, 1830-1860
Greenwald and Glasspiegel argue that adverse selection depressed the market prices of slaves, causing current researchers to overestimate the rate of return from slavery. In this paper we test for the presence of adverse selection by comparing the prices of local slaves with the prices of slaves sold from estate sales. We find no difference in the prices of these slaves, from which we conclude that there was no significant adverse selection in the market. Instead, we propose an alternative explanation for the observed pattern of slave prices based on the costs of shipping slaves to the New Orleans market.