Knowledge that Transforms

Joseph Friedman, Hung-Gay Fung, Daniel A. Gerlowski, Jonathan Silberman, A Note On "State Characteristics and the Location of Foreign Direct Investment within the United States", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 78, No. 2 (May, 1996), pp. 367-368

Recent survey validation studies suggest that measurement error in earnings data is pervasive and violates classical measurement error assumptions, and therefore may bias estimation of cross-section and longitudinal earnings models.We model the structure of earnings measurement error using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Validation Study (PSIDVS).We then use Rubin's (1987) multiple imputation techniques to estimate consistent earnings equations under nonclassical earnings measurement error in the PSID.Our technique is readily generalized, and the empirical results demonstrate the potential importance of correcting for measurement error in earnings and related data, particularly during recessions.

This paper presents empirically determined indifference functions for income and leisure which exhibit the phenomena of loss aversion and a utility reference point determined by adaptation, as expounded by Kahneman and Tversky and others. Data for this study were gathered in original surveys of seven diverse labor markets. The indifference functions of all show common features consistent with loss aversion/adaptation. These features help explain stability in labor markets in the face of an overtime premium which prevents the many workers in the United States from being at an optimal equilibrium and causes discontinuities in labor supply curves. Labor supply curves derived from indifference curves with the loss aversion adaptation features have much smaller discontinuities than those based on simulated curves without these features.

Using the currency swap as the forward-exchange risk hedge, the covered interest parity condition in the long-date capital markets is evaluated. Of interest is the extent to which deviations from parity can be attributed to transactions costs. The empirical conclusions presented in the paper suggest that, although (on average) transactions costs account for deviations from parity, net deviations (in excess of transactions costs) are neither rare nor short-lived. Yet an analysis of the variance structure of covered interest parity reveals that these profit opportunities diminish over time and eventually disappear.

This paper examines the cross-industry determinants of the importance of Japanese direct investment activities in U.S. manufacturing through an extension of the analysis in a recent article by Bruce Kogut and Sea Jin Chang (1991). The results indicate significant positive roles for Japanese technology and marketing assets. While U.S. technology assets are insignificant, a significant negative effect for U.S. marketing assets suggests that entry barriers related to marketing are more important than any use of foreign direct investment by Japanese firms to access these assets. In addition, U.S. government policies toward defense-oriented industries appear to act as a deterrent to Japanese direct investment.

This paper uses a survey of risk beliefs about skin cancer to provide new evidence on how people view risky situations. Empirical results presented are based on a measure of risk beliefs held at the time of the survey. Key findings are that risk beliefs about skin cancer account for factors including skin type, complexion, and sunlight exposure history. Also, the connection between risk beliefs and willingness to pay is explored by using reservation prices for a sun protection product. A new method for treating joint production in a household production framework is developed to support this analysis.

The authors test a standard expected utility model and alternative models about how people evaluate risky prospects using data about individuals' preferences among health insurance plans. A model that assumes people evaluate gains and losses relative to a reference rather than final outcomes, treat gains and losses asymmetrically, and process certain and uncertain outcomes separately provides a better fit than the standard utility model. These findings suggest inertia in health insurance plan choice and that individuals are more responsive to decreases than to increases in the price of insurance.

Let x be total consumption expenditures. Measurement errors in consumer budget allocation models cause unusual problems because errors in the dependent variables, consumption on individual goods, contribute to errors in the regressor x. Empirically adequate budget share models, like the AIDS, translog, and quadratic AIDS, are linear or quadratic in log x. It is shown that, for these specifications, two stage least squares fails to correct for the measurement error. A simple technique for recovering consistent estimates from two stage least squares is provided, along with an efficient generalized method of moments estimator. The method is applied to U.K. fuel demand data.

Mun S. Ho, , Finding Cointegration Rank in High Dimensional Systems Using the Johansen Test: An Illustration Using Data Based Monte Carlo Simulations, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 78, No. 4 (Nov., 1996), pp. 726-732

Studies based on inputs measured at the state level generally report that school expenditures have substantial effects on students' adult wages, whereas studies based on less aggregated measures report small effects. The author uses wage data from High School and Beyond to analyze this discrepancy, and to estimate the effect of school expenditures on students' post-schooling earnings. The author finds that the discrepancy in the literature stems mostly from two factors: measurement error in district-level expenditures and omitted state effects in the earnings regression. The author also finds that the effect of school expenditures on earnings is significant but small. A 10% increase in school spending would increase students' adult wages by only 0.68%.