Knowledge that Transforms

In Reinhart and Rogoff's economic history This Time is Different, the authors provide a panoramic view of crises from the Middle Ages to the modern era. Published just as the current global financial storm arrived, the book quickly showed how history could provide not just useful perspective but also, as we can now see, very prescient guidance in the aftermath. In the longer run, the book serves to inspire ongoing work in long-run macro-financial history. (JEL F30, G01, G20, N20)

The British Industrial Revolution is the key break in world history. Yet the timing, location, and cause of this Revolution are unsolved puzzles. Joel Mokyr's book is one of a number of recent attempted solutions. He explains the Industrial Revolution through the arrival of a particular ideology in Britain, associated with the earlier European intellectual movement of the Enlightenment. This review considers how Mokyr's “idealist” approach fares as an account of the Industrial Revolution, compared to the spate of recent proposed “materialist” explanations. (JEL N13, N63)

The Mirrlees Review of taxation in the United Kingdom is a landmark in the analysis of U.K. fiscal policy, and of wide interest to public finance economists around the world. This review concentrates on what we can learn from the Review about the current state of public economics and directions for future research. (JEL E62, H20, H50)

In Poor Economics, Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo eschew grand theorizing about poverty reduction in favor of an approach in which intelligently designed and tested small interventions, based on a scientific understanding of the lives of the poor, marginally improve their welfare. In so doing, they describe the findings from the recent large literature describing the behavior and institutions of the poor and the consequences of policy and experimental interventions targeted to poverty populations. In this review, I assess whether “thinking small” with its associated policy regime of transfers, subsidies, and nudges, is both a practical and effective policy prescription for “fighting” poverty and whether the set of studies that have focused on populations that have not escaped poverty has improved our fundamental understanding of both the consequences and causes of poverty. (JEL I32, I38, O15)

The Mirrlees Review is an ambitious and comprehensive analysis of the British tax system with detailed recommendations for reform. This review essay focuses on those issues that are also likely to be of interest to an American reader. The Review has the technical sophistication that readers would expect from a team of ten economists, chaired by James Mirrlees, the distinguished theorist who received the Nobel Prize for his contributions to the theory of optimal taxation. But it is written for a broader audience, explaining concepts like deadweight loss and the elasticity of tax revenue with respect to tax rates and doing so without any mathematics. (JEL D64, E21, E62, H24, H25)

Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo offer a coherent vision for an economics of poverty and antipoverty policy. Their economics is grounded in an effort to understand the economic and psychological complexities in the lives of poor people, informed by social experiments and field observations. Their preferred policies entail small reforms at the margin, also informed by experiments—specifically randomized control trials. While the book provides some interesting insights, I question how far its approach will get us in fighting global poverty. (JEL I32, I38, O15, P36)

All economists should be conversant with “what happened?” during the financial crisis of 2007–09. We select and summarize sixteen documents, including academic papers and reports from regulatory and international agencies. This reading list covers the key facts and mechanisms in the build-up of risk, the panics in short-term-debt markets, the policy reactions, and the real effects of the financial crisis. (JEL E32, E44, E52, G01, G21, G28)

A new meta-field of “forensic economics” has begun to emerge, uncovering evidence of hidden behavior in a variety of domains. Examples include teachers cheating on exams, road builders skimping on materials, violations of U.N. sanctions, unnecessary heart surgeries, and racial biases in employment decisions, traffic stops, auto retailing, and even sports judging. In each case, part of the contribution of economic analysis is in uncovering evidence of wrongdoing. Although research questions differ, forensic economic work shares commonalities in approaches and limitations. This article seeks to draw out the common threads, with the hope of stimulating further research across fields. (JEL K13)

This paper reports some of the recent developments in the econometric analysis of semimartingales estimated using high frequency financial returns. It describes a simple yet powerful methodology to decompose asset returns sampled at high frequency into their base components (continuous, small jumps, large jumps), determine the relative magnitude of the components, and analyze the finer characteristics of these components such as the degree of activity of the jumps. We incorporate to effect of market microstructure noise on the test statistics, apply the methodology to high frequency individual stock returns, transactions and quotes, stock index returns and compare the qualitative features of the estimated process for these different data and discuss the economic implications of the results.(JEL C58, G12, G13)

Financial advice could play an essential role in well-functioning markets for retail financial products, given that many consumers find it difficult to evaluate the complex products on offer. However, conflicts of interest, which are pervasive in some parts of the industry, can turn advice into a curse rather than a blessing for consumers, especially when consumers are not sufficiently wary. Through a simple model of financial advice, we overview the pros and cons of various policy interventions, such as imposing mandatory disclosure, banning commissions, and regulating contract cancellation terms. (JEL D14, D18, G21, G28)