Knowledge that Transforms

This paper presents results of an analysis of the labor supply response of 20-year families in the Denver Income Maintenance Experiment. The results indicate that 20-year husbands and wives do not reduce their labor supply relative to control families while 20-year single female heads of families reduce their labor supply by about the same amount as similar families on the 3and 5-year programs. The results suggest that the limited duration of the 3and 5-year experiments may not have caused major biases in the estimated treatment effects, although the imprecise estimates resulting from the small sample sizes of the 20-year experiment greatly qualify this conclusion.

,_ The Rate of Imitation of a Capital-Embodied Process Innovation, Economica 44 (Feb. 1977), 63-69. Sahal, Devendra, Patterns of Technological Innovation (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1981). Saxonhouse, Gary R., Estimated Parameters as Dependent Variables, American Economic Review 66 (Mar. 1976), 178-183. Theil, Henri, On the Estimation of Relationships Involving Qualitative Variables, American Journal of Sociology 76 (July 1970), 103-154. , Principles of Econometrics (New York: Wiley & Sons, 1971). Walker, David, An Analysis of Financial and Structural Characteristics of Banks with Retail EFT Machines, Working Paper # 79-1, FDIC, 1979.

A simple macro model is used to investigate various monetarist propositions over the period 1923-82. Initial tests indicate a structural break over this period and the subperiods 1923-60 and 1961-82 are analyzed separately. Results obtained for the latter period support the monetarist propositions put forward by Stein and others. However, upon closer investigation it appears that the crucial long-run neutrality that characterizes these findings is essentially generated by government policy and is not necessarily an intrinsic property of the economy over that period. By contrast, results obtained for the period 1923-60 are much less supportive of these same propositions.

A bstruactUsing a large scale, longitudinal micro data base this paper tests for the determinants of union wage settlements in manufacturing. Alternative specifications of wage change relationships were tested in data covering the years 1957 to 1980. Among the most important determinants of union wage changes were the expected inflation rate, inflationary surprises (in indexed agreements), incomes policy dummy variables and spillovers from key national agreements. Catch-up effects from lagged inflationary surprises were not important in determining the size of new settlements.

This paper describes the for exact evaluation of higher-order partial derivatives of functions of many variables without explicitly using the analytical expressions for those derivatives. We present and test the table method together with optimization methods which employ first, second and third order derivatives. The actual use of these methods proved to be easy and accurate.

Robert E. Baldwin, R. Spence Hilton, A Technique for Indicating Comparative Costs and Predicting Changes in Trade Ratios, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 66, No. 1 (Feb., 1984), pp. 105-110

This study analyzes the residential and commercial demand for electricity in ten regions in Paraguay for 1970-1977. Models that are both linear and nonlinear in the parameters are estimated. The nonlinear model takes advantage of prior information on the nature of the appliances being utilized and simultaneously deals with the demand discontinuities caused by appliance indivisibility. Three dynamic equations, including a novel cumulative adjustment model, all indicate rapid adjustment to desired appliance stock levels. Finally, the multiproduct surplus loss obtained from an estimated demand equation is used to measure the welfare cost of power outages. 15 references.

Abstracct-This paper examines the effects of family participation in an income maintenance program on the school, work, and choices of youth. A joint probability model of school and work outcomes is estimated using data from the Seattle and Denver Income Maintenance Experiments. Among youth age 16 to 21 we find the experimental treatment to be associated with a large reduction in the probability of working. This reduction is offset, at least in part, by an increase in school attendance so the net effect on leisure time is apparently quite small.