The End of the German Miracle
G ERMANY iS in the headlines, not because of super performance but rather because it seems to be on the ropes. Inflation fighting, once again, is taking its toll on growth in Germany and in all of Europe; the instant integration project for East Germany has translated into massive unemployment there and an extraordinary financial cost to come for a decade or more in the West. Prospects for an integrated Europe, with a common money and fully integrated markets and joint policies are moving off the screen. If there ever was a miracle, today one is badly needed. The complacent, self-satisfied, overweight, and overpaid Germany is not coping well with the challenges. The timely and important book by Giersch, Paque, and Schmieding fills a gap in the economic history of West Germany (at least in the English language) and it does so in a thoroughly professional and substantial way.' The authors have set for themselves two tasks, to provide an account of events and to lay out a set of explanatory economic hypotheses in the tradition of free market economics. They provide an almost blow-by-blow account of events and trends, and a record of opinions to document where Germany came from and where it went. The book is fully successful in this objective and thus deserves attention from students of German economic history. Curiously the authors explicitly exclude economic historians from their readership and invite the interest of applied economists; let no student of economic history be put off by this unjustified exclusion. The book comments on German postwar economic events in a chronological fashion. A rundown of the chapter titles will give an immediate impression of postwar history, the issues, and the authors' angst: stylized facts 1945-90; 1945-48: establishing a liberal order; 1948-60: spontaneous growth; 1960-73: toward managed growth; 1973-90: facing the slowdown; two cheers for German unification; a new miracle? No question, as a record this book is superb. The most interesting part is the account of the immediate postwar reconstruction, including monetary reform and decontrol. This is where the miracle happened most conspicuously as Henry Wallich (1955) described so well. The bold write-down of the monetary overhang is just one of the reforms of the time that would have been instructive for the Soviet Union in the past few years. In this context one cannot pass up recounting the Allied reaction to price liberalization in Germany. The turnaround of Germany in 1948 was nothing short of a miracle. From one day to the next, productive forces were unleashed to let recovery and growth proceed at breakneck speed. The move from a socialist control economy to the free market was bold. One Sunday in 1948, while the Allied supervisors were not watching, Economics minister Erhard lifted summarily all price controls. Jossleyn Hennessy (1964, p. 5) reports how it all started: