A Simple Mechanism for the Efficient Provision of Public Goods: Experimental Evidence by Josef Falkinger, Ernst Fehr, Simon Gächter and Rudolf Winter-Ember. Published in volume 90, issue 1, pages 247-264 of American Economic Review, March 2000
Look at the dramatic change in family structure that has occurred recently, illustrated in Figure 1. In the United States, 23 percent of children lived with an unwed mother in 1998, compared with only 8 percent in 1960.1 Of this 15-percentage-point increase, about 6 percentage points are due to a rise in the rate of divorce; the remaining 9 percentage points arise from an increase in out-of-wedlock births. Why care about this change in the structure of families? The lot of children living with a single mother is bleak. About 70 percent of those children in a family with a never-married mother were living near or below the poverty level in 1995. The corresponding figure for children being raised by a divorced mother was 45 percent. Associated with the increase in number of single mothers has been a rise in the percentage of the population on welfare. In 1960 only 1.7 percent of the population was on AFDC (Aid to Families with Dependent Children), while in 1995 about 5.2 percent were. Most mothers who received AFDC were single; 71 percent were in 1993. Also, AFDC mothers tended to have more children (2.6 on average vs. 2.1 for the population as a whole in 1993). It is interesting to note that there is evidence suggesting that more entrances into and exits out of welfare are connected with a shift in family structure rather than with a change in employment status. For instance, of the first-time entrances into welfare during 1983-1991 about 21 percent were associated with an out-of-wedlock birth, 23 percent were connected with a divorce or separation and 21 percent were linked with a reduction in the mother's work hours. Last, real AFDC benefits rose by about 70 percent between 1945 and 1977. They were about 25-percent higher in 1995 than in 1945. Could this have contributed to the rise in single motherhood? The task here is to outline a general-equilibrium model in which, at any point in time, some individuals will marry, others will divorce, and yet others will choose to have out-of-wedlock births. While the model is still prototypical in nature, it will be shown how such a framework can be used to address public-policy questions, in particular, the impact of welfare on family structure and the well-being of the economy.
The national income and product accounts (NIPA) are the most important measures of overall economic activity for a nation. Much as a satellite in space can survey the weather across an entire continent, so can the GDP give an overall picture of the state of the economy. Nevertheless, since their inception, there have been concerms that the accounts are incomplete and misleading because they omit vast continents of nonmarket activity such as unpaid work, the value of leisure time, investment in human capital, and most recently, the environment. The threshold question is: why should we devote scarce intellectual resources to studying nonmarket sectors? The basic insight behind nonmarket accounts is that economic and social welfare does not stop at the market's border, but extends to many nonmarket activities. Three particular areas are worth emphasizing. One important reason why we need better measures of nonmarket activity is because we spend increasingly fewer of our lifetime hours in market activities. A second and more speculative reason concems the growing importance (or at least the great importance) of nonmarket assets or mispriced market assets such as the environment and technology. A third point is that current measures of national saving and investment are highly defective. The examples later in this paper address each of these issues. Many of these issues were reviewed in a recent report on augmented accounting
X-inefficiency is surely among the most important topics in microeconomics. Yet, economists have found it difficult to study. If a given level of X-inefficiency were inevitable and changeless, it would be of little interest (indeed, would not really deserve to be called X-inefficiency at all). So our attention should focus on actual and potential changes in X-inefficiency: that is, on causes of changes, internal to a firm, that shift the firm's cost function. We explore the use of firms ' “cost-cutting” announcements to study the causes of changes in X-inefficiency. Cost cutting announcements by large corporations are made frequently and are reported in the business press. One might be tempted to interpret these announcements as indicating efforts to reduce X-inefficiency, and indeed we
This paper presents a general-equilibrium model where human capital investment increases specialization and exposes skilled workers to region-specific earnings risk. Interjurisdictional mobility of skilled labor mitigates these risks; state-contingent migration of skilled labor also improves efficiency. With perfect capital markets, labor-market integration raises welfare and reduces ex post earnings inequality. If instead human capital investment can only be financed through local taxes, labor-market integration leads to interjurisdictional fiscal competition, shifting the burden of taxation to low-skilled immobile workers. Decentralized public provision of human capital investment creates earnings inequalities and is inefficient.
What is the body of knowledge that we call macroeconomics at which the Principles course is a first look? Does today's Principles course provide the student with an introductory glimpse at macroeconomics, as it exists today? These are the questions that this paper addresses. To provide focus, I restrict my attention to a narrow part of the literature: the textbooks. Although textbooks reflect the views of their authors, they also represent an attempt on the part of authors and publishers to distill the views of the profession. Users, potential users, and hoped-for users review textbooks, and they are revised extensively to match perceptions of the delicate mix of market demand and author judgment. Therefore, I claim that the textbook database provides a valid source for addressing my questions. I begin by looking at the content of today's advanced macro course.
Since Gary S. Becker's (1968) groundbreaking work on the economics of crime, economists have expanded upon both the theory and the empirical analysis of crime (e.g., Isaac Ehrlich, 1973; M. K. Block and J. M. Heineke, 1975; Ehrlich, 1975; Ann Dryden Witte, 1980). According to the standard theoretical framework, optimizing individuals engage in criminal activities depending upon the expected payoffs of the criminal activity, the return to legal labormarket activity, tastes, and the costs of criminal activity, such as those associated with apprehension, conviction, and punishment. Excellent reviews of the literature appear in Daniel Nagin (1978), Sharon Long and Witte (1981), Richard Freeman (1983), and Theodore G. Chiricos (1987). While some studies reported evidence that increases in criminal-justice sanctions reduce criminal activity (Ehrlich, 1975; Witte, 1980; Stephen K. Layson, 1985; Jeffrey Grogger, 1991; Steven D. Levitt, 1997), others found either a weak relationship, or none at all between the two (Samuel L. Myers, Jr., 1983; James Peery Cover and Paul D. Thistle, 1988; Christopher Cornwell and William N. Trumbull, 1994). Contradictory results can be explained, at least in part, by the empirical problems inherent in crime research, the most significant being the simultaneity between crime and criminal-justice sanctions.' Thus, after 30 years of empirical research there is no consensus on the impact of police and arrests on criminal activity. The purpose of this study is to provide new, and potentially more refined, evidence on the crime-deterrence relationship using a unique data set, which consists of monthly observations in New York City for nearly 30 years. This is the only data set of its kind, based on highfrequency observations of five different crimes, the corresponding arrests, the size of the police force, and a poverty indicator, spanning decades of experience in one city.2 Consequently, this is the first paper that employs high-frequency time series of individual crime categories to circumvent many problems found in studies that employ cross-sectional or low-frequency (e.g., annual) time-series data sets. We also use recent advances in time-series econometrics to test and correct for problems that may have contaminated the results of previous time-series analyses of crime. We find robust evidence for the deterrent effects of arrests and police on most categories of serious felony offenses. Another unique feature of the study is the addition of drug-use proxies. In the 1980's and into 1990 the media focused much attention on drug abuse, crime control, and the criminaljustice system. It had been claimed that in* Corman: Department of Economics, Rider University 2083 Lawrenceville Road, Lawrenceville, NJ 08648, and National Bureau of Economic Research; Mocan: Department of Economics, University of Colorado-Denver, Campus Box 181, P.O. Box 173364, Denver, CO 80217, and National Bureau of Economic Research. This research is supported by a grant from the National Institute of Drug Abuse to the National Bureau of Economic Research (Grant No. 1-R03-DA06764). An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1996 American Economic Association Meetings in San Francisco, CA. Ofira Schwartz, Keith Amadio, Joseph Bucs, and Ronald Teodoro helped in data collection. Timothy Potter, Jennifer Giellis, Erdal Tekin, Melissa Anderson, Paul Niemann, and Danny Rees provided assistance in data analysis. John Lott, Jody Overland, and especially Michael Grossman provided very valuable suggestions. We thank two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Any opinions expressed here are those of the authors, and should not be assumed to be those of the granting agency, Rider University, University of ColoradoDenver, or NBER. ' Franklin Fisher and Daniel Nagin's (1978) article describing the problem is a classic in the field. Recent literature suggests several new approaches to the simultaneity problem: using careful empirical analyses of individual rather than aggregate data (Grogger, 1991; Helen Tauchen et al., 1994), and finding better exogenous instruments for identification (Levitt, 1996, 1997). 2 Among the advantages of using just one city is the fact that there is one unit defining and collecting crime and deterrence data, which prevents inconsistencies across observations.
During the past few years, many countries have suffered severe currency and banking crises, producing a staggering toll on their economies, particularly in emerging-market countries. In many cases, the cost of restructuring the banking sector has been in excess of 20 per cent of GDP, and output declines in the wake of crisis have been as large as 14 per cent. An increasingly popular view blames fixed exchange rates, specifically “soft pegs, ” for these financial meltdowns. Not surprisingly, adherents to that view advise emerging markets to join the ranks of the United States and other industrial countries that have chosen to allow their currency to float freely. (See, for example, Goldstein 1999.) At first glance, the world—with the notable exception of Europe—does seem to be marching steadily towards floating exchange rate arrangements. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), 97 per cent of its member countries in 1970 were classified as having a pegged exchange rate; by 1980, that share had declined to 39 per cent, and in 1999, it was down to only 11 per cent. 1 Yet, this much-used IMF classification takes at face value that countries actually do what they say they do. Even a cursory perusal of the Asian crisis countries ’ exchange rates prior to the 1997 crisis would suggest that their exchange rates looked very much like pegs to the U.S. dollar for extended periods of time. Only Thailand, however, was explicitly classified as a peg; the Philippines was listed as having a freely floating