When testing portfolio efficiency, empiricists usually perform tests using subperiods and aggregate the results in some manner. Although the power of individual subperiod tests has been studied previously, little is known about the power of the aggregate test. Power is evaluated here through simulations using two different aggregation techniques. Aggregate power is substantially higher than that for a single subperiod. For example, in one scenario the aggregate power is 0.77 over a sixty-year period, but only 0.17 for each five-year subperiod. In addition, the level of power depends on the method of aggregation.
We investigate the valuation consequences of voluntary proposals to sell part or all of a corporation's assets. For partial sell-offs, successful sellers and buyers reap statistically significant abnormal returns of 1.66% and 0.83%, respectively. Unsuccessful sellers realize gains at the bid announcement of 1.41% that are lost at the offer termination. In contrast, proposals to liquidate the firm are associated with significant average abnormal returns of 12.24%. We interpret these findings as evidence that asset sales are associated with the movement of resources to higher-valued uses rather than as evidence of market mispricing before the divestiture announcements.
Common stock with limited voting rights changes managerial incentives by allowing managers to separate ownership of equity from ownership of votes. This study compares managerial ownership before and after the creation of a class of limited voting common stock by 44 publicly traded firms between 1962 and 1984, and examines whether the event affects the wealth of current shareholders. There is no evidence that current shareholders are harmed by the creation of limited voting common stock.
Empirical tests of Euler equations relating security returns and consumption usually appear to reject the model. Using a common specification of aggregate preferences and instrumental variables, this paper examines some potential reasons for rejections. The evidence indicates that maintained stationarity assumptions of previous tests fail for post-war U.S. quarterly and monthly data. Shifts in model parameters are found across policy regimes (pre-1951 and post-1979) and across stages of the business cycle (recession versus non-recession). Controlling for some of these factors, less evidence is found against a simple consumption-based asset pricing model in non-recession periods.
This paper numerically solves the call option valuation problem given a fairly general continuous stochastic process for return volatility. Statistical estimators for volatility process parameters are derived, and parameter estimates are calculated for several individual stocks and indices. The resulting estimated option values do not differ dramatically from Black-Scholes values in most cases, although there is some evidence that for longer-maturity index options, Black-Scholes overvalues out-of-the-money calls in relation to in-the-money calls.
This paper models effects of short-sale constraints on the speed of adjustment (to private information) of security prices. Constraints eliminate some informative trades, but do not bias prices upward. Prohibiting traders from shorting reduces the adjustment speed of prices to private information, especially to bad news. Non-prohibitive costs can have the reverse effect, but this is unlikely. Implications are developed about return distributions on information announcement dates. Periods of inactive trade are shown to impart a downward bias to measured returns. An unexpected increase in the short-interest of a stock is shown to be bad news.
In this paper we examine the Henriksson-Merton test of market timing and its potential usefulness in evaluating investment advice. The paper proposes a natural extension of the test that is valid under more general assumptions about the distribution of asset returns. We show that the Henriksson-Merton test and its more general counterpart are special cases of standard tests of market rationality and efficiency. Both tests are applied to a group of foreign exchange advisory services.
Investment decisions and outlays are often made sequentially. For example, the rate at which construction proceeds is usually flexible and can be adjusted with the arrival of new information. Traditional discounted cash flow methods which treat the pattern of investment as fixed ignore this flexibility and understate the value of the project. This paper uses contingent claims analysis to derive optimal decision rules and to value such investments. We determine the effects of time to build, opportunity cost and uncertainty on the investment decision. For reasonable parameter values, we show how a simple NPV rule can lead to gross errors.
This study tests hypotheses about the valuation of leasing contracts. We examine the determinants of the yields of a relatively large, reasonably heterogeneous, and nationally representative sample of financial leases. We find lease yields to be significantly related to treasury bond yields and our proxies for the systematic risk of the leased asset's residual value and the transaction and information costs associated with the lease. There is also some evidence of a relationship between lease yields and the default-risk of the lessee.
This paper tests an information-signaling hypothesis as a potential explanation for corporate convertible bond call policies and for the negative share price reaction to the announcement of the calls. We test this hypothesis by trying to ascertain whether the information signaled is realized. Our results show an unexpected decline in the firm's performance subsequent to the call. We also find significant negative cumulative returns during a sixty-month period following the calls.