Knowledge that Transforms

Our paper assesses progress made by the profession in understanding whether and how exchange rate intervention works. We review theory and evidence on official intervention, concentrating primarily on work published in the last decade or so. We conclude that, unlike the profession's consensus of the 1980s, official intervention can be effective, especially as a signal of policy intentions and when publicly announced and concerted. We note an apparent empirical puzzle concerning the secrecy of much intervention and suggest another way for intervention to be effective which has received little attention in the literature, namely by remedying a coordination failure in the foreign exchange market.

This paper examines the role of secondary data-sets in empirical economic research, taking the field of income distribution as a case study. We illustrate problems faced by users of “secondary” statistics, showing how both cross-country comparisons and time-series analysis can depend sensitively on the choice of data. After describing the genealogy of secondary data-sets on income inequality, we consider the main methodological issues and discuss their implications for comparisons of income inequality across OECD countries and over time. The lessons to be drawn for the construction and use of secondary data-sets are summarized at the end of the paper.

School-to-work patterns and issues are discussed for seven economies (France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States). The emphasis is placed on differences across countries in the current labor market position of young people and recent trends therein, along with the institutions that regulate youth education, training, and employment. The power of public policies—including labor market deregulation, labor market programs, vocationalization of education, and apprenticeship—to improve youth outcomes is discussed, drawing on national evaluation literatures. Evidence of extensive policy failure points up the need to develop nationally appropriate institutions to improve school-to-work transitions.

We survey the determinants of earnings and propose a framework for understanding labor market success. We suggest that the advantages of the children of successful parents go considerably beyond the benefits of superior education, the inheritance of wealth, or the genetic inheritance of cognitive ability. We suggest that noncognitive personality variables, such as attitudes towards risk, ability to adapt to new economic conditions, hard work, and the rate of time preference affect both earning and the transmission of economic status across generations.

The first two main sections survey the roles of transnational networks in alleviating problems of contract enforcement and providing information about trading opportunities, respectively. The next section covers how domestic networks influence international trade through their impact on domestic market structure. Two overarching questions unify these sections: how do networks affect efficiency, and will networks grow or shrink in importance for international trade over time. The last main sections develop research agendas for two less studied areas: the role of intermediaries who can connect foreign agents to domestic networks and the ability of transnational production networks to facilitate technology transfer.

This paper summarizes and tries to reconcile evidence from the microeconometric and empirical macro growth literatures on the effect of schooling on income and GDP growth. Much microeconometric evidence suggests that education is an important causal determinant of income for individuals within countries. At a national level, however, recent studies have found that increases in educational attainment are unrelated to economic growth. This discrepancy appears to be a result of the high rate of measurement error in first-differenced cross-country education data. After accounting for measurement error, the effect of changes in educational attainment on income growth in cross-country data is at least as great as microeconometric estimates of the rate of return to years of schooling. Another finding of the macro growth literature—that economic growth depends positively on the initial stock of human capital—is not robust when the assumption of a constant-coefficient model is relaxed.

We estimate the impact of employer-provided retiree health insurance (EPRHI) on the labor force transitions of men aged 51 to 62.Data from the Health and Retirement Survey provide detailed and accurate measures of retiree health insurance. Availability of EPRHI increases the rate of exit from employment by two percentage points per year if the individual shares the cost of the insurance with the firm, and by six percentage points if the firm pays the entire cost. The impact of cost-shared EPRHI on the annual rate of labor force exit increases with age, reaching 7.5 percentage points by age 61.

Empirical studies of forecasts often fail to reconcile the rational expectations hypothesis with a minimum mean square error objective function. Recent studies, however, have argued that observed bias may be rational in certain advising games, or for objective functions that include publicity or forecasting reputation as additional arguments. This paper analyzes multistep forecasting behavior for individuals forecasting bond yields in the Blue Chip Financial Survey over the 1987–1996 period and uncovers statistically significant evidence supportive of Ehrbeck and Waldmann's rational stubbornness. I find that forecasters rationally place too much weight on their previous forecasts in an attempt to mimic the behavior of more able forecasters (perhaps attempting to fool their clients). Jointly, I also find that this pattern of under-revision is positively correlated with mean square forecasting errors. Rational stubbornness is sensitive to the forecasting horizon as well as bond maturity.

This paper considers two problems that arise in determining the role of cognitive ability in explaining the level of and change in the rate of return to schooling. The first problem is that ability and schooling are so strongly dependent that it is not possible, over a wide range of variation in schooling and ability, to independently vary these two variables and estimate their separate impacts. The second problem is that the structure of panel data makes it difficult to identify main age and time effects or to isolate crucial education-ability-time interactions which are needed to assess the role of ability in explaining the rise in the return to education.