Knowledge that Transforms

This essay reviews Lawrence Freedman's book Strategy: A History. The main themes—definitions, strategies in war, business, politics, and revolutions—are overviewed. The value of game-theoretic thinking for practical strategy is assessed. A critical discussion of some concepts and dichotomies emphasized by Freedman, e.g., strategy is governed by the starting point, not the end point, and of the role of stories and scripts in strategy, follows.

What are the ethical implications of our contributions to global warming on an individual level? In his extended essay, John Broome analyzes the moral implications of our imposing damages on future generations through our greenhouse-gas emissions. He argues that we as individuals owe restitution to those who are in the future damaged by these unjust acts. He suggests that restitution can be accomplished by completely offsetting emissions and thereby having a zero carbon footprint. This review examines the force of his arguments and suggests that offsetting emissions on an individual basis is an imperfect substitute for collective action or more encompassing contributions to those hurt by our externalities.

Herein, I review Peter Temin’s book, The Roman Market Economy, and take the occasion to alert economists to the exciting work that is being done and could be done in the economic history of the ancient world.

Gary Fethke and Andrew Policano's book Public No More: A New Path to Excellence for America's Public Universities paints a picture of a future for public research universities that is very different than what many people will want to see. Their message is that the financial and governance models under which public universities have operated have broken down and that new models are required. While I do not always agree with their prescriptions, I argue that private research universities face many of the same issues as their public counterparts and that this book deserves to be widely read by all people concerned with the future of American higher education.

Most macroeconomic models for monetary policy analysis are approximated around a zero inflation steady state, but most central banks target an inflation rate of about 2 percent. Many economists have recently proposed even higher inflation targets to reduce the incidence of the zero lower bound constraint on monetary policy. In this survey, we show that the conduct of monetary policy should be analyzed by appropriately accounting for the positive trend inflation targeted by policymakers. We first review empirical research on the evolution and dynamics of U.S. trend inflation and some proposed new measures to assess the volatility and persistence of trend-based inflation gaps. We then construct a Generalized New Keynesian model that accounts for a positive trend inflation. In this model, an increase in trend inflation is associated with a more volatile and unstable economy and tends to destabilize inflation expectations. This analysis offers a note of caution regarding recent proposals to address the existing zero lower bound problem by raising the long-run inflation target.

In an important new book, Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig raise broad critical questions about bank regulation. These questions are reviewed and discussed here, with a focus on how the problems of maintaining a stable financial system depend on fundamental problems of information and incentives in financial intermediation. It is argued that financial regulatory reforms can be reliably effective only when their basic principles are understood by informed citizens, and that Admati and Hellwig's book is a major contribution toward this goal, as it clearly lays out the essential case for requiring banks to have more equity.

This essay reviews Kenneth I. Wolpin's (2013) monograph The Limits of Inference without Theory, which arose from lectures he presented at the Cowles Foundation in 2010 in honor of Tjalling Koopmans. While I readily agree with Wolpin's basic premise that empirical work that eschews the role of economic theory faces unnecessary self-imposed limits relative to empirical work that embraces and tries to test and improve economic theory, it is important to be aware that the use of economic theory is not a panacea. I point out that there are also serious limits to inference with theory: 1) there may be no truly “structural” (policy invariant) parameters, a key assumption underpinning the structural econometric approach that Wolpin and the Cowles Foundation have championed; 2) there is a curse of dimensionality that makes it very difficult for us to elucidate the detailed implications of economic theories, which is necessary to empirically implement and test these theories; 3) there is an identification problem that makes it impossible to decide between competing theories without imposing ad hoc auxiliary assumptions (such as parametric functional form assumptions); and 4) there is a problem of multiplicity and indeterminacy of equilibria that limits the predictive empirical content of many economic theories. I conclude that though these are very challenging problems, I agree with Wolpin and the Cowles Foundation that economists have far more to gain by trying to incorporate economic theory into empirical work and test and improve our theories than by rejecting theory and presuming that all interesting economic issues can be answered by well-designed controlled, randomized experiments and assuming that difficult questions of causality and evaluation of alternative hypothetical policies can be resolved by simply allowing the “data to speak for itself.”

In his recent Mass Flourishings, Edmund Phelps makes a strong and eloquent plea for a more dynamic economy, which he sees not only as a key for economic performance, but also as necessary for what he calls “the good life.” This review essay evaluates those claims in the light of economic history.