Knowledge that Transforms

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What we say here will surely have little effect on curriculum evolvement since changes in subject, content, and emphasis follow on the heels of significant improvements in theory or dramatic changes in the institutional setting, rather than on teacher preferences.

Like any course, the basic money and financial institutions course, or money and banking as it is more frequently designated, takes on the unique coloration of the instructor. However, this course appears to be so affected more than most other finance and economics courses at this level. This occurs because, although it is a second course, it is still a very broad course in design, and more importantly, because it encompasses the three approaches to the teaching of economics and finance–description, theory, and policy. Different instructors emphasize different aspects, at times, to the almost total exclusion of one or both of the other two. But, judging from the financial failure of textbooks that have attempted to focus on just one of these aspects, say, financial institutions or monetary economics, it appears that most instructors prefer the broader and more diffuse coverage. And so do I.

The challenge of leadership is to look beyond the current expansion to consider the long–term outlook for the U. S. economy. My good friend Paul W. McCracken once described this process as looking across the valley to see what is on the other side. His message was: “What will be different on the other side of the valley is far more relevant to business planning than the valley itself.” Such advice is particularly meaningful at this time because of the basic need for more stability in our economic policies.

There is still a great deal of doubt whether we can avoid a capital shortage as economic recovery proceeds. In the near term, one sign of an impending capital shortage will be the appearance of bottlenecks in the industrial sector of our economy. Presently the data on capacity and its utilization are seriously defective.The Federal Reserve Board, in order to remedy the deficiency of the data, is improving its series on utilization rates. The new series in general will show that we have substantially less unused capacity than indicated by the old series.My preliminary reading of the improved data, ne ertheless, is that we need not be greatly worried about major bottlenecks well into 1977.Thereafter, the pace of recovery will be a critical factor. If the economy expands very rapidly, we may not have time to put in place enough capacity to avoid shortages. A moderately paced recovery will give us more time to produce the plant and equipment.

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