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International Coordination of Trade and Domestic Policies

American Economic Review 2001 91(5), 1580-1593
past half century has seen a dramatic multilateral reduction in tariff barriers under General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) negotiations. However, as tariff barriers have fallen, attention has shifted to the use of domestic policies as secondary trade barriers. A primary concern is that, as countries sign trade agreements that constrain their ability to pursue trade goals through trade policy, there will be unilateral incentives for governments to distort their domestic policies as a secondary means of protection.1 Increasingly, international trade disputes revolve around a country's use of internal regulations as a means of restricting trade. United States has successfully challenged the of liquor taxes in both Japan and Korea as discriminating against imported liquor, while Venezuela and Brazil have challenged American standards for reformulated and conventional gasoline as trade protection masquerading as environmentalism. GATT contains several articles concerning the international regulation of domestic policies, but the question of how to fully incorporate domestic policies within GATT negotiations (and other international trade agreements) remains contentious. Indeed, at both the Ministerial Meeting in 1994 (at the close of the Uruguay round) and the recent unsuccessful Ministerial Conference in Seattle, many GATT delegates renewed demands for the relationship between trade and various domestic policies (e.g., environmental policy, labor standards, or competition policy) to be examined. Despite the importance that has recently been placed on international cooperation over domestic policies, no theoretical basis exists for considering how to cooperate over both trade and domestic policies within an international agreement. Previous papers on negotiation over two instruments of protection (e.g., Copeland, 1989, 1990; Thomas L. Hungerford, 1991) have assumed asymmetric limitations on cooperation (i.e., they assume that one of the two instruments is either nonobservable or nonnegotiable). This paper extends such work by investigating cooperation over two negotiable instruments of protection under symmetric limitations on cooperation, and provides insight into the design of international trade agreements that incorporate cooperation over domestic policies. I adopt the view that enforcement issues are central to the understanding of international cooperation. One of the challenges of international cooperation is the absence of a central authority to enforce the terms of an agreement. Without access to an external enforcement mechanism, international agreements are viable only as long as member countries view continued cooperation to be in their own self-interest (i.e., the benefits from cooperating outweigh the potential gains from cheating).2 While the GATT/ * Department of Economics, University of Miami, P.O. Box 248126, Coral Gables, FL 33124 (e-mail: [email protected]). I would like to thank Bob Staiger, Bob Baldwin, Wolfgang Keller, Phillip McCalman, Jenny Minier, seminar participants at the NBER Conference on Trade, the Environment and Natural Resources, and two anonymous referees for comments on earlier versions of this paper. Any remaining errors are, of course, my own. ' For example, Brian R. Copeland (1990) examined negotiation over one trade barrier, leaving a secondary trade barrier (e.g., nontariff barriers, domestic legislation, etc.) to be set noncooperatively. He shows that trade liberalization will induce substitution toward the less efficient, nonnegotiable instrument of protection due to the unilateral incentives to maintain trade protection facing countries. Thus, within a cooperative framework, the two types of barriers serve as imperfect substitutes for each other. 2 As stated by Kenneth W. Dam in his review of the GATT institution: The best guarantee that a commitment of any kind will be kept (particularly in an international setting where courts are of limited importance and, even more important, marshals and jails are nonexistent) is that the parties continue to view adherence to their agreement in their mutual interest ... Thus, the GATT system, unlike most legal systems ... , is not designed to exclude self-help in the form of retaliation. Rather, retaliation, subjected to established procedures and kept within prescribed bounds, is made the heart of the GATT system (Dam, 1970 pp. 80-81).

Bringing the Market Inside the Firm?

American Economic Review 2001 91(2), 212-218
Academics, consultants, and practitioners have long advocated bringing the market inside the firm. For example, in the 1950s and 1960s economists proposed that the transfer-pricing problem should be solved by charging market prices for internal transactions. Similarly, in the 1980s, financial economists suggested that the capital-allocation problem should be solved by charging the external cost of capital for internal investments. And wave after wave of organizational restructuring has advocated radical decentralization, empowerment, “intrapreneurship, ” and the like—in short, making employees feel like owners. Proponents of making transactions within firms more market-like often seem to ignore the factors that brought these transactions inside firms in the first place. But Bengt Holmstrom and Paul Milgrom (1991, 1994), Holmstrom and Jean Tirole (1991), and Holmstrom (1999) [hereafter collectively HMT] remind us that in some cases integration is efficient precisely because it eliminates market incentives. In such cases, bringing the market inside the firm would clearly be undesirable. In this paper we show that bringing the market inside the firm is often not feasible, even if it would be desirable. More precisely, if some aspects of the market transaction are non-contractible (as we define below) then it is impossible to replicate spot-market payoffs inside a firm. This result would be trivial if the firm’s only instruments were court-enforceable contracts: it is impossible (by definition) for such contracts to replicate payoffs that were non-contractible in a spot market. Our

What Accounts for the Variation in Retirement Wealth Among U.S. Households?

American Economic Review 2001 91(4), 832-857
Even among households with similar socioeconomic characteristics, saving and wealth vary considerably. Life-cycle models attribute this variation to differences in time preference rates, risk tolerance, exposure to uncertainty, relative tastes for work and leisure at advanced ages, and income replacement rates. These factors have testable implications concerning the relation between accumulated wealth and the shape of the consumption profile. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the Consumer Expenditure Survey, we find little support for these implications. The data are instead consistent with “rule of thumb,” “mental accounting,” or hyperbolic discounting theories of wealth accumulation.

An Asset Allocation Puzzle: Comment

American Economic Review 2001 91(4), 1170-1179
Should the proportion of risky assets in the risky part of an investor’s portfolio depend on the investor’s risk aversion? According to basic financial theory, in particular the mutual-fund separation theorem with a riskless asset, the answer is no. The theorem states that rational investors should divide their assets between a riskless asset and a risky mutual fund, the composition of which is the same for all investors. Risk aversion affects only the allocation between the riskless asset and the fund. However, Niko Canner et al. (1997), CMW hereafter, observed that popular investment advice does not conform to this theory. They reported the stocks, bonds, and cash allocations recommended by four advisors for conservative, moderate, and aggressive investors. As shown in Table 1, which is reproduced from CMW, the advisors recommend a bond/stock ratio that varies directly with risk aversion. For example, Fidelity recommends a bond/stock ratio of 1.50 for a “conservative” (more riskaverse) investor, a ratio of 1.00 for a “moderate” (less risk-averse) investor, and a ratio of 0.46 for an “aggressive” (still less risk-averse) investor. The inconsistency between such advice and the separation theorem is called an asset allocation puzzle by CMW. They attempted to solve the puzzle by relaxing key assumptions in the theory, but finally reached a negative conclusion: “Although we cannot rule out the possibility that popular advice is consistent with some model of rational behavior, we have so far been unable to find such a model” (p. 181). However, they suggested that consideration of intertemporal trading might help resolve the puzzle. In the present paper, we provide theoretical support for the popular advice. The two key insights are that the investor’s horizon may exceed the maturity of the cash asset and that the investor rebalances the portfolio as time passes. If the investor’s horizon exceeds the maturity of cash, which might be a money-market security with maturity of one to six months, then cash is not the riskless asset as is commonly assumed in the basic theory. In a theory allowing portfolio rebalancing, as opposed to a buy-and-hold framework, it is not unreasonable to assume that the investor can synthesize a riskless asset (a zero-coupon bond maturing at the horizon) using a bond fund and cash. Then bonds will be both in the (synthetic) riskless asset and in the risky mutual fund and we show that in this case the theoretical bond/stock ratio varies directly with risk aversion for any hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) investor. As an example of the type of results that a specific model can produce, we provide a continuous-time model with closed-form solutions, which produces theoretical bond/stock ratios similar to the popular advice. The present paper is organized as follows: in the next section, we analyze the popular advice in terms of the theory of mutual-fund separation of David Cass and Joseph E. Stiglitz (1970). We show that this theory is relevant both in static and dynamic frameworks and use it to analyze the popular advice in complete and incomplete markets. In Section II, we analyze the popular advice in the context of Robert C. Merton’s (1971) continuous-time statement of mutualfund separation and present an illustrative model in which a CRRA investor makes continuous-time portfolio decisions under interest rate and stock price uncertainty. In Section III, numerical results are compared with the popular advice. Section IV is a conclusion. * Bajeux-Besnainou: Department of Finance, School of Business and Public Management, George Washington University, 2023 G Street NW, Washington, DC 20052; Jordan: National Economic Research Associates, 1255 23rd Street NW, Washington, DC 20037; Portait: CNAM and ESSEC, Finance Chair CNAM, 2 Rue Conte, Paris, France. This research was supported by a grant from the Institute for Quantitative Investment Research. We thank two anonymous referees for their comments. 1 HARA functions include quadratic utility, which is one way of justifying mean-variance preferences, and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) utility. Both quadratic and CRRA utility were considered in the CMW analysis.

Estimating the Effect of Unearned Income on Labor Earnings, Savings, and Consumption: Evidence from a Survey of Lottery Players

American Economic Review 2001 91(4), 778-794
This paper provides empirical evidence about the effect of unearned income on earnings, consumption, and savings. Using an original survey of people playing the lottery in Massachusetts in the mid-1980's, we analyze the effects of the magnitude of lottery prizes on economic behavior. The critical assumption is that among lottery winners the magnitude of the prize is randomly assigned. We find that unearned income reduces labor earnings, with a marginal propensity to consume leisure of approximately 11 percent, with larger effects for individuals between 55 and 65 years old. After receiving about half their prize, individuals saved about 16 percent.