This paper simulates the impact of the AIDS epidemic on future living standards in South Africa. I emphasize two competing effects. On the one hand, the epidemic is likely to have a detrimental impact on the human capital accumulation of orphaned children. On the other hand, widespread community infection lowers fertility, both directly, through a reduction in the willingness to engage in unprotected sexual activity, and indirectly, by increasing the scarcity of labor and the value of a woman's time. I find that even with the most pessimistic assumptions concerning reductions in educational attainment, the fertility effect dominates. The AIDS epidemic, on net, enhances the future per capita consumption possibilities of the South African economy.

In a partially reformed economy, distortions beget distortions. Segments of the economy that are freed from centralized control respond to the rent-seeking opportunities implicit in the remaining distortions of the economy. The battle to capture, and then protect, these rents leads to the creation of new distortions, even as the reform process tries to move forward. In this paper I illustrate this idea with a study of the People's Republic of China. Under the plan, prices were skewed so as to concentrate profits, and hence revenue, in industry. As control over factor allocations was loosened, local governments throughout the economy sought to capture these rents by developing high margin industries. Continued reform, and growing interregional competition between duplicative industries, threatened the profitability of these industrial structures, leading local governments to impose a variety of interregional barriers to trade. Thus, the reform process led to the fragmentation of the domestic market and the distortion of regional production away from patterns of comparative advantage.

The influence of Schumpeter's notion of "creative destruction" may have led to an overemphasis on substitution between technologies in recent models of endogenous innovation. Historical examples of technological change suggest that new technologies may just as frequently complement older technologies, creating, rather than destroying, rents. Acknowledgment of the potential for both substitution and complementarity among inventions allows for a much richer characterization of the growth process, creating the possibility of threshold effects and multiple equilibria and bringing to the forefront the important role played by the expectations of inventive entrepreneurs.

I. The social sciences differ from the physical in that the observer's interest lies within them, 1. — The contractual and the institutional views of society, 5. — Corresponding types of investigation, 6. — The genetic point of view, 7. — II. Group research and its promise, 11. — Induction and deduction, 12. — Fruitful hypotheses essential, 14. — Individual research; the constructive imagination, 15. — Promising types of research, 16. — The limitations and promise of research, 23.

Depreciation and Reproduction Cost Allyn A. Young Allyn A. Young Harvard University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 41, Issue 2, February 1927, Pages 345–349, https://doi.org/10.2307/1883506 Published: 01 February 1927

Journal Article The Aged Poor of Massachusetts Get access Allyn A. Young Allyn A. Young Harvard University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 40, Issue 3, May 1926, Pages 549–554, https://doi.org/10.2307/1885178 Published: 01 May 1926

Knight on the limited scope of scientific method in economics, 156. — Wolfe on functional economics, 159. — Bye's defence of pure science, 161. — Clark's pragmatic views, 161. — Mills on the logic of statistics, 163. — Weld and Mills's canons, 167. — Tugwell on experimental thinking, 168. — Slichter's indictment of the competitive system, 171. — Mitchell's position on the relation of psychology to economics, 173. — The postulates of economics, 179. — Institutional economics, 182.

Consumers' Surplus in International Trade. A Supplementary Note Get access Allyn A. Young Allyn A. Young Harvard University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 39, Issue 3, May 1925, Pages 498–499, https://doi.org/10.2307/1882443 Published: 01 May 1925

Journal Article Marshall on Consumers' Surplus in International Trade Get access Allyn A. Young Allyn A. Young Harvard University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 39, Issue 1, November 1924, Pages 144–150, https://doi.org/10.2307/1883959 Published: 01 November 1924

Journal Article Fisher's “The Making of Index Numbers” Get access Allyn A. Young Allyn A. Young Harvard University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 37, Issue 2, February 1923, Pages 342–364, https://doi.org/10.2307/1883934 Published: 01 February 1923