Financial analysts closely follow a firm’s operations and assess the risks that it faces. In this paper, we examine whether analysts incorporate ESG risks into their stock recommendations and target prices. Specifically, we use a unique firm-day level dataset on negative ESG risk incidents to proxy for unobservable risk assessments of analysts. We find that analyst outputs predict future ESG incidents, suggesting that analysts incorporate ESG risks into their models. Our results are robust to controlling for ESG incidents that firms experienced in the past, and are stronger in more transparent information environments, and in the presence of more guidance on ESG issues from the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board. Importantly, we find that analysts incorporate ESG risks through adjusting discount rates rather than cash flow estimates. Overall, our results highlight the ability of financial analysts to synthesize and integrate ESG risks into their research.

ABSTRACT Using newly available materiality classifications of sustainability topics, we develop a novel dataset by hand-mapping sustainability investments classified as material for each industry into firm-specific sustainability ratings. This allows us to present new evidence on the value implications of sustainability investments. Using both calendar-time portfolio stock return regressions and firm-level panel regressions, we find that firms with good ratings on material sustainability issues significantly outperform firms with poor ratings on these issues. In contrast, firms with good ratings on immaterial sustainability issues do not significantly outperform firms with poor ratings on the same issues. These results are confirmed when we analyze future changes in accounting performance. The results have implications for asset managers who have committed to the integration of sustainability factors in their capital allocation decisions.