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Monetary policy reaction function and the financial cycle

Journal of Banking & Finance 2022 142, 106536
We examine whether the systematic response of monetary policy to financial imbalances matters for financial stability. We measure how responsive the Federal Reserve's policy is to imbalances in the equity, housing and credit markets. We find that changes in these policy sensitivities predict the subsequent development of financial imbalances. When monetary policy responds more counter-cyclically to market overheating, imbalances tend to decline over time. This effect is distinct from that of current and anticipated interest rate levels – the risk-taking channel. The evidence highlights the importance of the systematic component of monetary policy reaction function in shaping the financial cycle.