Prior studies have identified systematic and time persistent differences in analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy, but have not explained why the differences exist. Using the I/B/E/S Detail History database, this study finds that forecast accuracy is positively associated with analysts’ experience (a surrogate for analyst ability and skill) and employer size (a surrogate for resources available), and negatively associated with the number of firms and industries followed by the analyst (measures of task complexity). The results suggest that analysts’ characteristics may be useful in predicting differences in forecasting performance, and that market expectations studies may be improved by modeling these characteristics.

This study investigates whether abnormal returns can be earned using public information about firms’ domestic and foreign earnings. The results indicate that the market understates foreign earnings’ persistence. As a result, it is possible to construct a zero-investment hedge portfolio that consistently earns positive returns across years. A disproportionate fraction of the positive abnormal returns to the long position is concentrated in the few days surrounding the subsequent year's quarterly earnings announcement dates. Furthermore, the abnormal returns do not appear to persist beyond the subsequent year. The results are consistent with market mispricing, and not mis-estimated risk.

Weekly returns of stock portfolios exhibit substantial autocorrelation. Analytical studies suggest that nonsynchronous trading is capable of explaining from 5% to 65% of the autocorrelation. The varying importance of nonsynchronous trading in these studies arises primarily from differing assumptions regarding nontrading periods of stocks. We simulate the effects of nonsynchronous trading by sampling stock returns from a return generating process using transactions data to obtain the precise time of each stock's last trade. We find that simulated weekly portfolio returns exhibit autocorrelations that are roughly 25% that of their observed (CRSP) weekly returns.

John Nash's formulation of noncooperative game theory was one of the great breakthroughs in the history of social science. Nash's work in this area is reviewed in its historical context to better understand how the fundamental ideas of noncooperative game theory were developed and how they changed the course of economic theory.

This paper analyzes data on 11,600 students and their teachers who were randomly assigned to different size classes from kindergarten through third grade. Statistical methods are used to adjust for nonrandom attrition and transitions between classes. The main conclusions are (1) on average, performance on standardized tests increases by four percentile points the first year students attend small classes; (2) the test score advantage of students in small classes expands by about one percentile point per year in subsequent years; (3) teacher aides and measured teacher characteristics have little effect; (4) class size has a larger effect for minority students and those on free lunch; (5) Hawthorne effects were unlikely.

This article examines the effects of unemployment compensation finance in a labor market in which firms pay efficiency wages. Two self‐financing unemployment compensation systems are compared: one in which benefits are financed by a proportional payroll tax and another in which experience rating is introduced by taxing firms in proportion to their separations. We find that experience rating leads to less unemployment, less shirking, and higher output.

A straightforward generalization of the simple net present value rule that correctly predicts when to invest in two classes of projects that can be delayed is derived. The first class consists of projects for which the option to delay derives its value exclusively from uncertainty about interest rates. It is shown that the optimal rule for investing in such projects is to simply multiply the discount rate of the project by the ratio of the mortgage rate to the riskless rate and then use this new rate as the discount rate in a standard net present value analysis. The other class of investment opportunities that is considered is the firm's option to expand. It is shown that it is only optimal for the firm to expand when a particular call option on the firm's stock has no time value. The fact that mortgage bonds (in the form of GNMAs) and stock options are actively traded implies that these rules have potentially important practical and empirical value. Besides their simplicity, the rules have the added advantage that they do not depend on a maintained assumption on the dynamics of interest rates in the economy.

This study examines the predictive value of Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) information. More specifically, this study tests the association between properties of analysts' earnings forecasts and MD&A quality, where MD&A quality is measured by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC). We find that high MD&A ratings are associated with less error and less dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts after controlling for many other expected influences on analysts' forecasts. We also find that estimated regression coefficients are consistent with MD&A information having a substantial effect on earnings forecasts. Finally, we find our results are driven by forward‐looking disclosures about capital expenditures and operations, and also by historical disclosures about capital expenditures. These findings are consistent with the suggestion by many constituencies (including the SEC) that the type of information found in high quality MD&A is particularly relevant for predicting earnings.

Numerous examples show that some econometric software packages contain serious flaws, and that users cannot safely assume that their software is accurate. A brief survey of the fundamentals of computer arithmetic discusses the sources of numerical error and emphasizes that computer arithmetic is not at all like pencil-and-paper arithmetic. Both users and developers of econometrics software should first pay attention to accuracy, and only later consider user-friendliness. Details are provided for assessing the accuracy of basic estimation routines, statistical distributions, and random number generators. More accuracy benchmarks are needed, especially for specialized econometric procedures.