In this paper I develop and empirically test a model that highlights how the correlation between cash flows and a source of aggregate risk affects a firm's optimal cash holding policy. In the model, riskier firms (i.e., firms with a higher correlation between cash flows and the aggregate shock) are more likely to use costly external funding to finance their growth option exercises and have higher optimal savings. This precautionary savings motive implies a positive relation between expected equity returns and cash holdings. In addition, this positive relation is stronger for firms with less valuable growth options. Using a data set of US pubic companies, I find evidence consistent with the model's predictions.

Since the early 1980s, the composition of US public firms has progressively shifted toward less profitable firms with high growth potential (Fama and French, 2004). We estimate a dynamic corporate finance model to quantify the role of this selection mechanism for the secular trend in cash holdings among US public firms. We find that an increase in the precautionary savings motive—primarily driven by the decline in initial profitability among R&D-intensive new lists—explains about 50% of the upward trend in cash holdings. This selection mechanism also explains part of the upward trend in sales growth volatility.

The data show that, upon being hit by adverse profitability shocks, large public firms have ample latitude to divest their least productive assets, reducing the risk faced by shareholders and the returns that they are likely to demand. In the one‐factor production‐based asset pricing model, when the frictions to capital adjustment are shaped to respect the evidence on investment, the model‐generated cross‐sectional dispersion of returns is only a small fraction of that documented in the data. Our conclusions hold even when operating or labor leverage is modeled in ways shown to be promising in the extant literature.

We demonstrate theoretically and empirically that strategic considerations are important in shaping the cash policies of innovative firms. In our model, firms compete in product markets with uncertain structure using cash as a commitment device to invest in innovation. We show that firms’ equilibrium cash holdings are related to the expected intensity of competition. The sign and magnitude of this relation depends on firms’ financial constraints. Consistent with the strategic motive for hoarding cash, we show that firms’ cash holdings are negatively affected by their rivals’ cash-holding choices, even more so when competition is expected to be intense.