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How big is the premium for currency risk?1We thank Geert Bekaert, Tim Bollerslev, Peter Bossaerts, Mark Carhart, John Cochrane, Magnus Dahlquist, Wayne Ferson, Linda Goldberg, Campbell Harvey, Pierre Hillion, Robert Hodrick (the referee), Olivier Ledoit, John Matsusaka, Hans Mikkelsen, Angel Serrat and Ivo Welch, as well as workshop participants at INSEAD, University of California at Los Angeles, University of Southern California, University of Rochester, Southern Methodist University, University of California – Irvine, Koc University and participants at the 1996 UBC Global Investment Conference (Whistler, BC), 1996 Western Finance Association meetings (Sunriver, OR), 1996 European Finance Association meetings (Oslo, Norway), 1996 NBER Asset Pricing meeting (Evanston, IL), and the 1997 Econometric Society winter meetings (New Orleans, LA) for their comments. The paper was written while the second author was visiting the Anderson School at UCLA. Both authors acknowledge the financial support of a CIBEAR grant.1

Journal of Financial Economics 1998 49(3), 375-412
We estimate and test the conditional version of an International Capital Asset Pricing Model using a parsimonious multivariate GARCH process. Since our approach is fully parametric, we can recover any quantity that is a function of the first two conditional moments. Our findings strongly support a model which includes both market and foreign exchange risk. However, both sources of risk are only detected when their prices are allowed to change over time. The evidence also indicates that, with the exception of the U.S. equity market, the premium for bearing currency risk often represents a significant fraction of the total premium.

International Asset Pricing and Portfolio Diversification with Time‐Varying Risk

Journal of Finance 1997 52(5), 1881-1912
We test the conditional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) for the world's eight largest equity markets using a parsimonious generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) parameterization. Our methodology can be applied simultaneously to many assets and, at the same time, accommodate general dynamics of the conditional moments. The evidence supports most of the pricing restrictions of the model, but some of the variation in risk‐adjusted excess returns remains predictable during periods of high interest rates. Our estimates indicate that, although severe market declines are contagious, the expected gains from international diversification for a U.S. investor average 2.11 percent per year and have not significantly declined over the last two decades.

International Asset Pricing and Portfolio Diversification with Time-Varying Risk

Journal of Finance 1997 52(5), 1881
We test the conditional CAPM for the world's eight largest equity markets using a parsimonious GARCH parameterization. Our methodology can be applied simultaneously to many assets and, at the same time, accommodate general dynamics of the conditional moments. The evidence supports most of the pricing restrictions of the model, but some of the variation in risk-adjusted excess returns remains predictable during periods of high interest rates. Our estimates indicate that, although severe market declines are contagious, the expected gains from international diversification for a U.S. investor average 2.11% per year and have not significantly declined over the last two decades.

Trading and Manipulation Around Seasoned Equity Offerings

Journal of Finance 1993 48(1), 213-245
We investigate the potential for manipulation due to the interaction between secondary market trading prior to a seasoned equity offering (SO) and the pricing of the offering. Informed traders acting strategically may attempt to manipulate offering prices by selling shares prior to the SO, and profit subsequently from lower prices in the offering. The model predicts increased selling prior to a SO, leading to increases in the market maker's inventory and temporary price decreases. Further, since manipulation conceals information, the ratio of temporary to permanent components of the price movements is predicted to increase.

Trading and Manipulation Around Seasoned Equity Offerings

Journal of Finance 1993 48(1), 213
We investigate the potential for manipulation due to the interaction between secondary market trading prior to a seasoned equity offering (SO) and the pricing of the offering. Informed traders acting strategically may attempt to manipulate offering prices by selling shares prior to the SO, and profit subsequently from lower prices in the offering. The model predicts increased selling prior to a SO, leading to increases in the market maker's inventory and temporary price decreases. Further, since manipulation conceals information, the ratio of temporary to permanent components of the price movements is predicted to increase.