Introduction, 165.—Taussig's theory of fertility, 166.—Differentials in fertility, 169.—Summary, 170.

This article presents a review of the book ?Insight to Impact: Strategies for Interpersonal and Organizational Change,? by William G. Dyer.

This paper reports the testing of hypotheses concerning: (i) whether the household is better viewed as planning over a single-period versus a multiperiod horizon; (ii) whether the household is better viewed as planning in a single-asset or a multiasset framework; (iii) the relative importance of substitution and wealth effects as sources of change in the stock demand for automobiles. The findings are that a multiperiod, multiasset model best describes stock demand, that the separation theorem which implies a zero wealth effect is rejected, and that substitution effects are seven times more important than wealth effects. THE ECONOMIC LITERATURE CONTAINS several empirical studies of household automobile demand [3, 7, 8, and 10] and theoretical models of the household [1, 4, 5, 6, and 14] which are or could be applied to automobile demand. Two aspects of theory which are not fully reflected in the empirical studies are the implications of a multiperiod horizon and the possibility of substitution among assets. Theoretical models [5 and 15] which assume a multiperiod horizon imply that relevant asset prices are user costs and the appropriate constraint is wealth. In contrast, most empirical studies use purchase prices rather than user costs, and income rather than wealth. In addition, theoretical models [4 and 5] permit substitution over a variety of goods, whereas most empirical studies restrict substitutions to automobiles and consumption goods. To the extent that estimated equations are misspecified, the prevailing conclusion that income effects are more important than substitution effects may be due to left-out-variable bias. This paper investigates each of these three issues-the length of the horizon, the range of substitutions, and the relative importance of substitution and wealth effects-by estimating over the same set of data a variety of alternative equations which reflect different assumptions about the horizon and range of substitutions. Initially, a multiperiod, multiasset model of the household consumption-saving decision is stated and used to derive the appropriate arguments for the broadest estimating equation. A linear approximation of this equation is estimated using quarterly United States data covering the years 1952-1972. Then this estimate is compared to competing equations derived under restrictions on the multiperiod, multiasset model. Specifically, demand equations derived under multiperiod, single-asset, single-period, single-asset, and single-period, multiasset assumptions are estimated and compared to the broadest multiperiod, multiasset equation. In addition, versions of the restricted equations which have appeared in the literature are estimated and compared. The findings are: (i) a multiperiod, multiasset equation best describes automobile stock demand, (ii) estimates of substitution and wealth effects are quite sensitive to specification bias, and (iii) substitution effects are seven times more important than wealth effects in the dominant equation.

Methods of planning based on systems ideas, behavioral science concepts, and heuristics were used to develop plans in a field setting, to contrast the merits of these planning approaches. Plans were evaluated by experts as well as decision makers and staff in the participating organization. Criteria such as quality, acceptance, and measures of innovation were used to contrast the plans. The perceptions of agency representatives that participated in the planning groups were also obtained. The systems method used planning groups that were composed solely of experts. In the systems method, objectives were established in the first phase of the meeting, and used as a basis to structure the development of plans. For example, the intent of the service delivery plan was established before recommendations were developed. The behavioral approach used clients, the recipients of the service to be planned, as planning groups members. These groups developed a list of priority client problems which were used as a focus to formulate plans. The heuristic approach was applied to simulate trial and error planning. In this approach, no structure was used in the generation of plan components, the leader merely recorded the ideas that were stimulated by a statement of the problem. In the heuristic approach, half the planning groups had just clients as members and the rest were made up of experts. The three methods of planning were applied to two problems—the development of plans for primary health care services, and home health care delivery mechanisms. In all, twelve distinct planning groups participated permitting a replication of each “problem-planning topic” contrast. The results of the experiment indicated that the systems approach produced better quality plans while the behavioral approach produced more new ideas. This suggests that involving an organization's client in planning of services to define their problems provides a rich array of ideas for the planning process, but that systems approaches and experts are needed to formulate these ideas and consolidate them into a viable plan. However, the participants found their experiences to be significantly less satisfactory when a systems approach was used. Several other implications of these findings for planning practice are discussed.

This paper deals with a practical application of queueing theory. In particular, an approximate but quick method is developed for solving a fleet sizing and allocation problem. The problem concerns an optimal allocation of the total available transport vehicle units to many fleets in such a way that all fleets provide (as nearly as possible) a uniform level of service. The level of service is measured in terms of the fraction of arriving orders for shipment delayed due to the lack of immediate availability of a transport vehicle unit. The method employs some new results in queueing theory for approximating the delay probability and the service facility size in multi-server systems. An illustrative example is included to demonstrate a way of applying the method.

A strategy is developed which minimizes the expected time (or plays) to reach a given financial goal when “time rebates” are given if the goal is more than attained in the last investment period. It is shown that the optimal strategy is the one which maximizes the expected logarithm of the investment relative (for discrete distributions this is equivalent to maximizing the geometric mean). This strategy is optimal for all goals and levels of capital. When no time rebates are given, however, the proposed strategy will generally not be optimal. In this case the theory shows the strategy is uniformly good. Further, at least in a limited sense, the true optimal will generally differ significantly only in endgame play.

The leadership literature is reviewed and categorized into four inter-related classifications. Several problems with leadership research are identified and a framework consisting of empirically-derived variables is presented as the first stage in development of an integrative leadership effectiveness model.

Although theories of industrial motivation require application in ongoing organizations for the sake of validation, most of them are not yet sufficiently mature to justify their widespread commercial applications by practitioners or consulting academics. Even their “successful” application may result in dysfunctional consequences, having ethical implications.

A general formula is derived for the price of a security whose value under specified conditions is a known function of the value of another security. Although the formula can be derived using the arbitrage technique of Black and Scholes, the alternative approach of continuous-time portfolio strategies is used instead. This alternative derivation allows the resolution of some controversies surrounding the Black and Scholes methodology. Specifically, it is demonstrated that the derived pricing formula must be continuous with continuous first derivatives, and that there is not a ‘pre-selection bias’ in the choice of independent variables used in the formula. Finally, the alternative derivation provides a direct proof of the Modigliani-Miller theorem even when there is a positive probability of bankruptcy.