Merger simulations are commonly used to simulate the effects of potential mergers. Despite the large resources devoted to merger review, little evidence exists on the accuracy of these methods. This paper uses the acquisition of Tambrands by Proctor and Gamble to provide evidence on the efficacy of merger simulation. Two simple demand systems are estimated under several identification assumptions and combined with a static model of price competition. Simulations predict small price effects of about 1 percent for the merging firms' brands, while direct estimates indicate the merger raised prices by 5–8 percent.

Abstract I argue that subsidiaries of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) enjoy an advantage of foreignness in innovation, that is, they are more innovative than domestic firms. To explain this, I present the subsidy and the incentive arguments. The subsidy argument proposes that subsidiaries are subsidized in their innovation effort by the MNE, which results in subsidiaries having more innovations than domestic firms, because they belong to a foreign MNE. The incentive argument posits that subsidiaries are subject to two sets of unique and converging pressures, one at the MNE level in the corporate factor market and another at the host country level in the consumer market. These pressures drive subsidiaries to become more successful at transforming their research and development investments into innovations. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

This article tests whether stock market investors appropriately distinguish between new and old information about firms. I define the staleness of a news story as its textual similarity to the previous ten stories about the same firm. I find that firms' stock returns respond less to stale news. Even so, a firm's return on the day of stale news negatively predicts its return in the following week. Individual investors trade more aggressively on news when news is stale. The subsequent return reversal is significantly larger in stocks with above-average individual investor trading activity. These results are consistent with the idea that individual investors overreact to stale information, leading to temporary movements in firms' stock prices. The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]., Oxford University Press.

Typologies are an important way of organizing the complex cause-effect relationships that are key building blocks of the strategy and organization literatures. Here, I develop a novel theoretical perspective on causal core and periphery, which is based on how elements of a configuration are connected to outcomes. Using data on high-technology firms, I empirically investigate configurations based on the Miles and Snow typology using fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). My findings show how the theoretical perspective developed here allows for a detailed analysis of causal core, periphery, and asymmetry, shifting the focus to midrange theories of causal processes.

How can we know in advance whether simplifying assumptions about beliefs will make a difference in the conclusions of game-theoretic models? We define critical types to be types whose rationalizable correspondence is sensitive to assumptions about arbitrarily high-order beliefs. We show that a type is critical if and only if it exhibits common belief in some non-trivial event. We use this characterization to show that all types in commonly used type spaces are critical. On the other hand, we show that regular types (types that are not critical) are generic, although perhaps inconvenient to use in applications.

The willingness of banks to provide funding for real estate purchases depends on the creditworthiness of borrowers. Besides other factors, this creditworthiness depends on the development of real estate prices. Real estate prices, in turn, depend on the demand for homes which is influenced by the supply of mortgages. I develop a theoretical model which explains this circular relationship. I show how different kinds of expectation formations can lead to fluctuations in real estate prices. Furthermore, I show that banks make above-average profits in the upswing phase of the real estate cycle but suffer high losses when the market turns.

We use a novel data set to study return predictability in debt markets. The data are collected from J.P. Morgan’s periodic surveys on its clients’ outlook for changes in US Treasury yields and corporate credit spreads. We document that simple signals constructed from such surveys predict excess returns on debt portfolios formed on the basis of duration (2-years minus zero) or credit quality (BBB minus AAA). A linear trading strategy placing equal weight on Treasury and Credit signals has an annualized Information Ratio equal to 1.18, before transaction costs. We also show that predictability is likely to stem from private information possessed by survey respondents rather than from risk premia.

We investigate the epistemology of trust in social networks. We posit trust as a special epistemic state that depends on actors' beliefs about each others' beliefs as well as about states of the world. It offers new ideas and tools for representing the core elements of trust both within dyads and larger groups and presents an approach that makes trust measurable in a noncircular and predictive, rather than merely postdictive, fashion. After advancing arguments for the importance of interactive belief systems to the successful coordination of behavior, we tune our investigation of trust by focusing on beliefs that are important to mobilization and coordination and show how trust functions to influence social capital arising from network structure. We present empirical evidence corroborating the importance of higher-order beliefs to understanding trust and the interactive analysis of trust to the likelihood of successful coordination. This paper was accepted by Jesper Sørensen, organizations and social networks.

Following the dividend flexibility hypothesis used by DeAngelo and DeAngelo (2006), Blau and Fuller (2008), and others, we theoretically extend the proposition of DeAngelo and DeAngelo (2006) optimal payout policy in terms of the flexibility dividend hypothesis. In addition, we also introduce growth rate, systematic risk, and total risk variables into the theoretical model. To test the theoretical results derived in this paper, we use the data collected in the US from 1969 to 2009 to investigate the impact of the growth rate, systematic risk, and total risk on the optimal payout ratio in terms of the fixed-effect model. We find that based on flexibility considerations, a company will reduce its payout when the growth rate increases. In addition, we find that a nonlinear relationship exists between the payout ratio and the risk. In other words, the relationship between the payout ratio and the risk is negative (or positive) when the growth rate is higher (or lower) than the rate of return on total assets. Our theoretical model and empirical results can therefore be used to identify whether flexibility or the free cash flow hypothesis should be used to determine the dividend policy.