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Measuring Risk Information

Journal of Accounting Research 2022 60(2), 375-426
ABSTRACT We develop a measure of how information events impact investors' expectations of risk. The measure is broadly applicable and simple to implement. We derive it from an option‐pricing model, where investors anticipate an announcement that simultaneously conveys information on the announcer's expected future cash flows and risk profile. We empirically implement the measure using firms' earnings announcements, showing that it closely aligns with our model's predictions and offers strong forecasting power for firms' risk profiles, costs of capital, and future investments. We further highlight pitfalls of using simple changes in option‐implied volatilities to study information gleaned from earnings announcements. Finally, we apply our measure to study disclosure regulation, the efficacy of text‐based proxies, and market‐wide events, which we use to illustrate our measure's uses, and illuminate its potential limitations.

Mutual fund tournaments and fund Active Share

Journal of Financial Stability 2022 63, 101083
We study the impact of the tournament-like competition in the mutual fund industry by examining the Active Share choices of funds. Funds with relatively poor performance by the end of the third quarter in a calendar year tend to increase their Active Share during the last quarter. The increase in the trailing funds’ Active Share is accompanied by an increase in the funds’ downside risk exposure. The evidence suggests that the strategic shifts in Active Share we document are not information/skill motivated.

CAFR 1999–2021, the past two decades and a look ahead

Journal of Financial Stability 2022 60, 101015
The China Accounting and Finance Review (CAFR) was jointly established in 1999 by the Hong Kong Polytechnic University and Tsinghua University. Over the past 22 years, CAFR has published original papers in accounting and finance with a focus on China-related research. In this article, we review the journal’s publishing patterns and the impactful articles it has published, with the aim of better understanding past research on China-related issues and recent publication patterns and trends as well as developing new insight that may inspire future submissions. We divide past CAFR articles by topic into six groups: (i) information disclosure; (ii) auditing; (iii) corporate governance; (iv) market efficiency; (v) corporate finance; and (vi) miscellaneous. We use these categories as the basis of our review for articles published before 2020. We also summarize articles by their regional setting, research methodology, and authors’ university affiliation. We then highlight the contributions of a few impactful CAFR articles that are actively cited in both the Chinese and English literature. We complement the literature review by going over China’s financial stability research in JFS. We also compare CAFR with other major accounting and finance journals in the Asia-Pacific region. CAFR stands out by welcoming research using a diversity of regional settings and research topics. Finally, we discuss the new editorial strategies that began in 2020. Under the new editorial policy, CAFR now publishes more non-China and more cross-disciplinary studies than it used to. We review several recent publications to demonstrate the change. Going forward, we intend to call for the publication of more high-quality papers in accounting and finance that are not restricted to a region, area, or methodology providing new insights into accounting and finance.

The Impact of Ford Motor Company’s Voluntary Equal Wage Policy on Detroit’s Wage Gap in the 1940s

Journal of Labor Economics 2022 40(2), 505-541
We analyze the impact of Ford Motor Company’s compensation practices on the Detroit-area labor market from 1918 to 1947. Previous studies imply that Ford paid race-independent wages, but its Black workers were sorted into undesirable departments. We extend these results using propensity score reweighting of census data and Ford’s records and confirm that Ford paid equal wages. We then develop a search model with discriminatory and equal wage firms to assess the impact of Ford’s policy on the larger labor market. Calibrated simulations suggest that Ford may have reduced the wage gap in southeastern Michigan by as much as 50%.

A Nation of Laws, and Race Laws

Journal of Economic Literature 2022 60(2), 427-453
This article reviews the history of race laws in the United States as distinct from the rule of law, an idea found in the writing and speeches of Sadie Tanner Mossell Alexander, the first African American PhD in economics (1921). We review the race laws of slavery, lynching, Negro Jobs, and the making of the Black ghetto. We highlight the life and writings of Alexander and other early African American economists as an example of the cost of racial exclusion in the economics profession and how it has impeded the production of useful knowledge about the workings of the US economy. (JEL J15, K38, N31, N32, N41, N42)

Bank use of sovereign CDS in the Eurozone crisis: Hedging and risk incentives

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2022 50, 100964
Using a comprehensive dataset from German banks, we document the usage of sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) during the European sovereign debt crisis of 2008–2013. Banks used the sovereign CDS market to extend, rather than hedge, their long exposures to sovereign risk during this period. Lower loan exposure to sovereign risk is associated with greater protection selling in CDS, the effect being weaker when sovereign risk is high. Bank and country risk variables are mostly not associated with protection selling. The findings are driven by the actions of a few non-dealer banks which sold CDS protection aggressively at the onset of the crisis, but started covering their positions at its height while simultaneously shifting their assets towards sovereign bonds and loans. Our findings underscore the importance of accounting for derivatives exposure in building a complete picture and understanding fully the economic drivers of the bank-sovereign nexus of risk.

Does task-specific knowledge improve audit quality: Evidence from audits of income tax accounts

Accounting, Organizations and Society 2022 99, 101320
Two forms of expertise can influence audit quality: industry and task-specific expertise. Anecdotal evidence suggests that tax knowledge is task-specific, rather than industryspecific and audit offices with increased exposure to complex tax issues develop this taskspecific expertise. Using outcomes related to audits of the income tax accounts, we examine whether tax task-specific knowledge (TSK) affects the audit quality of the income tax accounts and find that tax TSK increases the audit quality of the income tax accounts. We also find evidence of an improved response to misstatements among audit offices with tax TSK, demonstrated by a decreased likelihood of future tax misstatements following the disclosure of a tax restatement. Finally, we observe the effect of tax TSK among audit offices with lower levels of auditor-provided tax services (APTS). This result suggests that audit offices without the benefit of knowledge spillover from APTS rely more on the tax TSK.

Shall we talk? The role of interactive investor platforms in corporate communication

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2022 74(2-3), 101524
Between 2010 and 2017, Chinese investors used an investor interactive platform (IIP) to ask public companies around 2.5 million questions, the vast majority of which received a reply within two weeks. We analyze these IIP dialogues using a BERT-based algorithm and provide preliminary evidence on their causes and consequences. Our analyses show most questions reflect investors’ difficulties in processing information already in the public domain. Controlling for other news, higher IIP activity is associated with increases in trading volume, return volatility, market liquidity, and price informativeness as well as decreases in bid-ask spread. Financial statement-related postings increase around the adoption of new accounting standards. Collectively, our results show that investors face significant information processing costs but that IIP activities help reduce these costs, leading to improvements in stock price formation.

Non-GAAP earnings and stock price crash risk

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2022 73(2-3), 101473
We investigate whether non-GAAP earnings disclosures increase stock price crash risk. Consistent with non-GAAP disclosures allowing managers to inflate investors’ perceptions about firm performance, our results indicate that income increasing non-GAAP reporting increases crash risk. We also find that managers can use non-GAAP reporting as a substitute for earnings management to withhold bad news from investors (the traditional explanation for crashes). Finally, we find a positive association between non-GAAP reporting and the likelihood of subsequent events that can trigger a crash. Overall, our evidence is consistent with some non-GAAP disclosures exposing investors to risks of large and sudden price declines.