This study examines the information content of stock option-implied volatility. We measure the arrival intensities and magnitudes of scheduled and unscheduled news as well as fundamental and non-fundamental news. Most of these news measures exhibit strong and positive associations with contemporaneous stock return volatility, and many of them can be predicted by implied volatility. Approximately one third of the predictive power of implied volatility on future realized volatility can be attributed to its ability to predict these news measures, with the majority of the predictive power arising from its capacity to predict the arrival intensities of both scheduled and unscheduled news. The predictive power is higher for fundamental news than for non-fundamental news.

We propose a new class of risk measures which satisfy convexity and monotonicity, two well-accepted axioms a reasonable and realistic risk measure should satisfy. Through a nonlinear weight function, the new measure can flexibly reflect the investor’s degree of risk aversion, and can control the fat-tail phenomenon of the loss distribution. A realistic portfolio selection model with typical market frictions taken into account is established based on the new measure. Real data from the Chinese stock markets and American stock markets are used for empirical comparison of the new risk measure with the expected shortfall risk measure. The in-sample and out-of-sample empirical results show that the new risk measure and the corresponding portfolio selection model can not only reflect the investor’s risk-averse attitude and the impact of different trading constraints, but can find robust optimal portfolios, which are superior to the corresponding optimal portfolios obtained under the expected shortfall risk measure.

ABSTRACT We examine the evolution of accounting regulation by linking disclosure policies and investments in a dynamic voting model. The disclosure policies are the outcome of voting by entrepreneurs, whose preferences are influenced by their investments. The investments are in turn endogenously determined by current and future disclosure policies. Absent external influences, accounting regimes are stable. A disclosure regime of high (low) quality and a strong (weak) economy coexist and reinforce each other. However, regulatory interventions can result in regime changes by changing the entrepreneurs’ expectations, even without direct enforcement. Unexpected shocks could also result in regime changes by impacting economic conditions and hence voter composition. Our analysis provides a framework to study the interaction between accounting regulation and firms’ economic decisions.

Abstract We examine a simple measure of operating leverage: the ratio of fixed costs (measured by depreciation and amortization plus selling, general, and administrative expenses) to the market (or book) value of assets. We find that this measure of operating leverage positively predicts returns. This operating leverage measure is not explained by common factors and performs better than the traditional measures of operating leverage. Furthermore, an exploratory two-factor model with the operating leverage factor works at least as well as, but does not subsume, the Fama and French five-factor model. (JEL G11, G12, G30)

The aim of this study was to retrospectively analyze 18F-FDG positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT) metabolic variables, programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) and phosphorylated signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (p-STAT3) tumor expression, and other factors as predictors of disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) (stage IA-IIIA) who underwent surgical resection. We still lack predictor of immune checkpoint (programmed cell death-1 [PD-1]/PD-L1) inhibitors. Herein, we investigated the correlation between metabolic parameters from 18F-FDG PET/CT and PD-L1 expression in patients with surgically resected LUAD.Seventy-four patients who underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT prior to treatment were consecutively enrolled. The main 18F-FDG PET/CT-derived variables were primary tumor maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG). Surgical tumor specimens were analyzed for PD-L1 and p-STAT3 expression using immunohistochemistry. Correlations between immunohistochemistry results and 18F-FDG PET/CT-derived variables were compared. Associations of PD-L1 and p-STAT3 tumor expression, 18F-FDG PET/CT-derived variables, and other factors with DFS in resected LUAD were evaluated.All tumors were FDG-avid. The cutoff values of low and high SUVmax, MTV, and TLG were 12.60, 14.87, and 90.85, respectively. The results indicated that TNM stage, PD-L1 positivity, and high 18F-FDG PET/CT metabolic volume parameters (TLG ≥90.85 or MTV ≥14.87) were independent predictors of worse DFS in resected LUAD. No 18F-FDG metabolic parameters associated with PD-L1 expression were observed (chi-square test), but we found that patients with positive PD-L1 expression have significantly higher SUVmax (P = .01), MTV (P = .00), and TLG (P = .00) than patients with negative PD-L1 expression.18F-FDG PET/CT metabolic volume parameters (TLG ≥90.85 or MTV ≥14.87) were more helpful in prognostication than the conventional parameter (SUVmax), PD-L1 expression was an independent predictor of DFS in patients with resected LUAD. Metabolic parameters on 18F-FDG PET/CT have a potential role for 18F-FDG PET/CT in selecting candidate LUAD for treatment with checkpoint inhibitors.

Abstract This paper proposes “implied stochastic volatility models” designed to fit option-implied volatility data and implements a new estimation method for such models. The method is based on explicitly linking observed shape characteristics of the implied volatility surface to the coefficient functions that define the stochastic volatility model. The method can be applied to estimate a fully flexible nonparametric model, or to estimate by the generalized method of moments any arbitrary parametric stochastic volatility model, affine or not. Empirical evidence based on S&P 500 index options data show that the method is stable and performs well out of sample.

This study examines the long-term impact of social disaster experiences on household finance. Using the Cultural Revolution in China, the country’s most pronounced sociopolitical turmoil that completely disrupted millions of people’s lives, we show that households are more likely to participate in the stock market if their eldest member was more exposed to the turmoil. The results remain robust to alternative historical events, socioeconomic factors, and household characteristics. Survey results suggest that the more exposed individuals invest in the stock market because they perceive stocks as low risk rather than have altered risk preferences or trust in stock markets.

This study examines the impact of multi-tasking teams on fund performance. We find that while managerial multi-tasking has a negative impact on fund performance, teamwork can mitigate the adverse effect associated with managerial multi-tasking, which is indicative of superior performance of funds managed by multi-tasking teams. More importantly, it is the characteristics of the multitasking team that contribute to these superior results, which can be attributed to network cognitive diversity, suggesting that extended networks, facilitated by indirectly-connected managers via local teammates, can largely enhance the scale of cognitive diversity, thus generating significant gains through information pooling and integration. In assessing possible mechanisms for the observed superior performance, we find evidence of improved decision-making induced by network cognitive diversity through both transmission and sharing of value-relevant information, and speedy information diffusion.

This study develops a theoretical model to analyze the asset substitution problem over insurance decisions. We find that agency conflict is related to a firm’s risk level and capital structure. In particular, at the optimal leverage, agency conflict occurs only when the risk level is relatively high, which explains why insurance covenants are typically for significant pure risks. Moreover, when the risk level is specified, agency conflict over insurance decisions occurs within a specific leverage range. This is consistent with the findings of some research on the asset substitution problem over speculative risk choices. In addition, we consider premium loadings and conclude that full hedging is not a firm’s optimal risk management strategy, contributing to the literature on optimal hedging decisions with transaction frictions. Our framework with premium loadings can also explain many insurance phenomena, such as risk retention for small losses and subsidies for catastrophe insurance.

Abstract Using a large panel of more than 140,000 state-owned enterprises (SOEs), this study examines SOEs’ investment behavior surrounding 82 national elections in 25 European countries between 2001 and 2015. We find that SOEs increase their corporate investment by about 29% of the sample average during national election years. This effect is more pronounced in fixed timing and closely contested elections. The effect is also stronger in countries with low institutional quality, more centralized political systems, and state-controlled banking systems. In contrast, we find the matched non-SOEs significantly decrease their corporate investment during national election years. (JEL G18, G30, G32, E22) Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.