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The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on investor sentiment

Journal of Banking & Finance 2015 61, 89-105
This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and investor sentiment across conventional and unconventional monetary policy regimes. During conventional times, we find that a surprise decrease in the fed funds rate leads to a large increase in investor sentiment. Similarly, when the fed funds rate is at its zero lower bound, research results indicate that expansionary unconventional monetary policy shocks also have a large and positive impact on investor mood. Together, our findings highlight the importance of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the determination of investor sentiment.

The Impact of Crisis-Period Interest Rate Declines on Distressed Borrowers

Review of Financial Studies 2024 37(12), 3710-3760
We measure the causal impact of reductions in benchmark interest rates on the renegotiation and performance of distressed loans, using 2000s subprime mortgages as a laboratory. Subprime borrowers treated with larger benchmark rate reductions benefited from increased debt-renegotiation probabilities and lower debt-service payments. Modification rates were similar among current and delinquent borrowers but higher for real estate investors, highlighting the role of financial acumen in renegotiation. Renegotiations also reduced longer-run foreclosures, but treated borrowers who lingered in delinquency offset these benefits. Findings suggest monetary easing can spur debt renegotiation but alone may not lead to longer-run curative outcomes.

Local Labor Markets in Canada and the United States

Journal of Labor Economics 2019 37(S2), S533-S594
We examine US and Canadian local labor markets from 1990 to 2011 using comparable household and business data. Wage levels and inequality rise with city population in both countries, albeit less in Canada. Neither country saw wage levels converge despite contrasting migration patterns from/to high-wage areas. Local labor demand shifts raise nominal wages similarly, although in Canada they attract immigrant and highly skilled workers more while raising housing costs less. Chinese import competition had a weaker negative impact on manufacturing employment in Canada. These results are consistent with Canada’s more redistributive transfer system and larger, more educated immigrant workforce.