In this paper, we implement a methodology to identify and measure premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange that involves application of signal‐extraction techniques from the engineering literature. Diagnostic tests indicate that these methods are quite successful in capturing the essence of the time‐series properties of premium terms. The estimated premium models indicate that premia show a certain degree of persistance over time and that more than half the variance in the forecast error that results from the use of current forward rates as predictors of future spot rates is accounted for by variation in premium terms. The methodology can be applied straightforwardly to the measurement of unobservables in other financial markets.

In this paper, we implement a methodology to identify and measure premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange. The methodology involves application of signal-extraction techniques from the engineering literature. Diagnostic tests indicate that these methods are quite successful in capturing the essence of the time-series properties of premium terms. The estimated premium models indicate that premia show a certain degree of persistence over time and that more than half the variance in the forecast error that results from the use of current forward rates as predictors of future spot rates is accounted for by variation in premium terms. The methodology can be applied straightforwardly to the measurement of unobservables in other financial markets.

This paper introduces and analyzes a new form of contingent convertible: a call option enhanced reverse convertible (COERC). If an issuing bank’s market value of capital breaches a trigger, COERCs convert to many new equity shares that would heavily dilute existing shareholders, except that shareholders have the option to purchase these shares at the bond’s par value. COERCs have low risk: They are almost always fully repaid in cash. Yet, they reduce government bailouts by replenishing a bank’s capital. COERCs’ design also avoids problems with market-value triggers, such as manipulation or panic, while reducing moral hazard and debt overhang.