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Edgeworth Equilibria

Econometrica 1987 55(5), 1109
This paper studies pure exchange economies with infinite dimensional commodity spacces in the setting of Riesz dual systems. An Edgeworth equilibrium is an allocation that belongs to the core of every replication of the ec onomy. Under some mild conditions, it is shown that (1) Edgeworth equ ilibria exist, (2) an allocation is an Edgeworth equilibrium if and o nly if it is an approximate quasiequilibrium, and (3) if preferences are uniformly proper, then every Edgeworth equilibrium is a quasiequi librium. The obtained results specialize to most exchange economies t hat have appeared in the literature of general equilib rium theory.

A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1987 102(3), 553
The set of parameters needed to calculate the expected present discounted value of a stream of dividends can be estimated in two ways. One may test for speculative bubbles, or fads, by testing whether the two estimates are the same. When the test is applied to some annual U. S. stock market data, the data usually reject the null hypothesis of no bubbles. The test is of general interest, since it may be applied to a wide class of linear rational expectations models.

The effect of labor strikes on security analysts' forecast superiority and on the association between risk‐adjusted stock returns and unexpected earnings*

Contemporary Accounting Research 1987 4(1), 61-75
This paper empirically examines whether labor strikes affect the forecasting and information content of quarterly earnings numbers. We address two issues regarding financial analyst forecast (FAF) superiority: whether FAF superiority increases when a strike occurs and if so, whether the increase in FAF superiority is sustained immediately after the strike ends. We also examine two issues regarding information content: whether strikes affect the coefficient mapping unexpected earnings into stock prices and whether strikes affect the variance of stock price changes. We suggest that strikes affect both the forecasting and information content of quarterly earnings numbers. Résumé. Cet article examine de façon empirique si les grèves des travailleurs influencent la prévision et le contenu informatif des résultats trimestriels. Nous abordons deux questions relatives à la supériorité des prévisions d'analystes financiers (PAF): à savoir si la supériorité des PAF s'accroît lorsqu'une grève se produit et, dans l'affirmative, si l'accroissement de cette supériorité se maintient immédiatement après la fin de la grève. Nous étudions également deux questions relatives au contenu informatif: à savoir si les grèves influencent le coefficient incorporant l'impact des bénéfices imprévus sur le cours des actions et si les grèves affectent la variance des fluctuations du cours des actions. Les grèves affecteraient donc à la fois la prévision et le contenu informatif des résultats trimestriels.

Intertemporal Wage Variation, Employment, and Unemployment

Journal of Labor Economics 1987 5(1), 106-129
A model of labor supply under uncertainty is developed, and comparative statics of current labor are carried out with respect to temporary and persistent wage change. This and a complementary analysis of measurement error suggest that individual wage growth leads to downward-biased estimates of intertemporal labor substitution. An alternative strategy, namely, the use of short-lived industry wage pulses in place of individual wage growth, is free of the above biases. Findings presented in the paper support this point of view. These results also suggest that intertemporal substitution has been undervalued as a source of cyclical changes in unemployment.

Search, Layoffs, and Reservation Wages

Journal of Labor Economics 1987 5(3), 354-365
I analyze job search models with random layoffs in which employment opportunities are characterized by a wage and some measure of risk. Intuition suggests that a worker ought to demand a higher wage if he is to accept a job with a higher layoff rate; but this is not true in several models analyzed in the literature. I demonstrate here that assumptions about what happens immediately after a layoff and after a quit are critical in determining the relation between reservation wages and risk. Making these assumptions explicit clarifies the reasons why different models imply quite different predictions.

Expectations of Exchange Rates and Differential Inflation Rates: Further Evidence on Purchasing Power Parity in Efficient Markets

Journal of Finance 1987 42(1), 69
The paper tests the null hypothesis of ex ante purchasing power parity. The empirical evidence obtained is inconsistent with the null for major industrialized countries over the current floating exchange rate regime. Expected nominal exchange rate changes appear to deviate systematically from expected inflation rate differentials over the same holding period even though real exchange rate changes appear to be serially uncorrelated. This supports the presence of time-varying risk premia in foreign exchange markets and real determinants of exchange rate movements as suggested by equilibrium theories of international asset markets.