Social discount rates (SDRs) are crucial for evaluating the costs of climate change. We show that the fundamental anchor for market-based SDRs is the equilibrium or steady-state real interest rate. Empirical interest rate models that allow for shifts in this equilibrium real rate find that it has declined notably since the 1990s, and this decline implies that the entire term structure of SDRs has shifted lower as well. Accounting for this new normal of persistently lower interest rates substantially boosts estimates of the social cost of carbon and supports a climate policy with stronger carbon mitigation strategies.

We analyze sectoral labor reallocation and the reversal of urbanization in the United States during the Great Depression. The widespread movement to farms, which serves as a form of migratory insurance during the crisis, is largely toward farms with low levels of mechanization. In contrast, the mechanized agricultural sector sheds workers, many of whom reallocate into low-productivity or subsistence farming. The crisis perverts the normal process of structural change in which workers displaced by farm equipment are released into more productive occupations, suggesting that macroeconomic fluctuations are an important factor determining the labor market consequences of technological change.

Recent research concludes that the rise in consumption inequality mirrors, or even exceeds, the rise in income inequality. We revisit this finding, constructing improved measures of consumption, focusing on its well-measured components that are reported at a high and stable rate relative to national accounts. While overall income inequality rose over the past 5 decades, the rise in overall consumption inequality was small. The declining quality of income data likely contributes to these differences for the bottom of the distribution. Asset price changes likely account for some of the differences in recent years for the top of the distribution.

The leadership structure of the American Economic Association is documented using a biographical database covering every officer and losing candidate for AEA offices from 1950 to 2019. The analysis focuses on institutional affiliations by education and employment. The structure is strongly hierarchical. A few institutions dominate the leadership, and their dominance has become markedly stronger over time. Broadly two types of explanations are explored: that institutional dominance is based on academic merit or that it is based on self-perpetuating privilege. Network effects that might explain the dynamic of increasing concentration are also investigated.

Thirty-six states have legalized medical marijuana and 18 states have legalized the use of marijuana for recreational purposes. In this paper, we review the literature on the public health consequences of legalizing marijuana, focusing on studies that have appeared in economics journals as well as leading public policy, public health, and medical journals. Among the outcomes considered are: youth marijuana use, alcohol consumption, the abuse of prescription opioids, traffic fatalities, and crime. For some of these outcomes, there is a near consensus in the literature regarding the effects of medical marijuana laws (MMLs). As an example, leveraging geographic and temporal variation in MMLs, researchers have produced little credible evidence to suggest that legalization promotes marijuana use among teenagers. Likewise, there is convincing evidence that young adults consume less alcohol when medical marijuana is legalized. For other public health outcomes such as mortality involving prescription opioids, the effect of legalizing medical marijuana has proven more difficult to gauge and, as a consequence, we are less comfortable drawing firm conclusions. Finally, it is not yet clear how legalizing marijuana for recreational purposes will affect these and other important public health outcomes. We will be able to draw stronger conclusions when more posttreatment data are collected in states that have recently legalized recreational marijuana.

We provide both a theoretical framework and empirical results for the relationship between CO2 emissions and systemic risk in the U.S. Based on a modified structural distance-to-default model that integrates physical risk effects, a theoretical framework is developed, documenting a positive link between CO2 emissions and systemic risk. Network VAR analysis, Diebold and Yilmaz variance decomposition, and conditional Granger causality provide empirical support for this positive link. Bank assets are found to be negatively related to CO2 emissions, which indicates an adjustment of the banking sector’s assets towards a lower-carbon economy. Policy implications include government-sponsored insurance support for banks facing insured losses.

We provide evidence that accruals quality in the U.S. has generally improved since 2000, following a decade of decline during the 1990s. Our results indicate that both the initial decline in accruals quality and the subsequent reversal can be explained by an inverse relation with operating cash flow volatility. Moreover, even though patterns of cash flow volatility and accruals quality vary in different regions of the world and relative to the U.S., we find evidence of an inverse relation between accruals quality and cash flow volatility globally. We corroborate our main results in a battery of additional tests, which also indicate that our results are not attributable to other explanations. Overall, our evidence challenges conventional wisdom and suggests that concerns about a sustained decline in accruals quality over time are unwarranted.