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Causes of the Current Stagflation

Review of Economic Studies 1982 49(5), 707
Since 1975 labour slack has been unusually high in the OECD countries, and yet inflation has not diminished. The less favourable mix of unemployment and rate of change of inflation (which we call stagflation) is explained by a fall in the feasible rate of growth of real wages unmatched by a reduction in the constant term in Phillips curve. To investigate this mechanism, conventional wage and price equations are estimated for 19 countries and then used for simulation. Stagflation has been caused in roughly equal amounts by rising relative import prices and by the fall in the rate of productivity growth. In the basic model the Phillips curve is assumed not to adapt to falls in feasible real wage growth, but in a final section an adaptive wage equation is estimated, which confirms that the process of adaptation is slow.

Consumer Inattention and Bill-Shock Regulation

Review of Economic Studies 2015 82(1), 219-257
For many goods and services such as electricity, health care, cellular phone service, debit-card transactions, or those sold with loyalty discounts, the price of the next unit of service depends on past usage. As a result, consumers who are inattentive to their past usage but are aware of contract terms may remain uncertain about the price of the next unit. I develop a model of inattentive consumption, derive equilibrium pricing when consumers are inattentive, and evaluate bill-shock regulation requiring firms to disclose information that substitutes for attention. When inattentive consumers are sophisticated but heterogeneous in their expected demand, bill-shock regulation reduces social welfare in fairly-competitive markets, which may be the effect of the Federal Communication Commission's recent bill-shock agreement. If some consumers are attentive while others naively fail to anticipate their own inattention, however, then bill-shock regulation increases social welfare and can benefit consumers. Hence, requiring zero-balance alerts in addition to the Federal Reserve's new opt-in rule for debit-card overdraft protection may benefit consumers.