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The Austral Plan

American Economic Review 1987
In recent years, several countries have experienced extremely rapid inflations, but without total collapses of the national currencies. Argentina was one of those cases. By mid-1985, the rate of price increase exceeded 30 percent per month; however, prices continued to be set in pesos and there remained a sizeable volume of (short-term) nominal contracts. The treatment of such inflations poses several questions: What is the desirable speed of disinflation? What mix of instruments can effectively act on prices without causing an excessive fall in real income? How can prices be kept on a stable or moderately rising trend? The Austral Plan, announced in June 1985, combined fiscal measures with a price-wage freeze and a monetary reform, linked to a system for the conversion of debt contracts. The program quite successfully managed the transition to a much lower inflation rate, while real output recovered rapidly after an initial contraction. Still, inflationary forces remained strong: the problem of achieving a sustained stabilization proved quite difficult to solve. This paper briefly describes the program and its effects, with some references to current debates on stabilization policies. (See my 1986 study for full discussion and details.)