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Comparing early warning systems for banking crises

Journal of Financial Stability 2008 4(2), 89-120
Despite the extensive literature on prediction of banking crises by Early Warning Systems (EWSs), their practical use by policy makers is limited, even in the international financial institutions. This is a paradox since the changing nature of banking risks as more economies liberalise and develop their financial systems, as well as ongoing innovation, makes the use of EWS for informing policies aimed at preventing crises more necessary than ever. In this context, we assess the logit and signal extraction EWS for banking crises on a comprehensive common dataset. We suggest that logit is the most appropriate approach for global EWS and signal extraction for country-specific EWS. Furthermore, it is important to consider the policy maker's objectives when designing predictive models and setting related thresholds since there is a sharp trade-off between correctly calling crises and false alarms.

Is accruals quality a priced risk factor?

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2008 46(1), 2-22
In a recent and influential empirical paper, Francis, LaFond, Olsson, and Schipper (FLOS) [2005. The market pricing of accruals quality. Journal of Accounting and Economics 39, 295–327] conclude that accruals quality (AQ) is a priced risk factor. We explain that FLOS’ regressions examining a contemporaneous relation between excess returns and factor returns do not test the hypothesis that AQ is a priced risk factor. We conduct appropriate asset-pricing tests for determining whether a potential risk factor explains expected returns, and find no evidence that AQ is a priced risk factor.

Cross-Border Returns Differentials*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2008 123(4), 1495-1530
Using a monthly data set on the foreign equity and bond portfolios of U.S. investors and the U.S. equity and bond portfolios of foreign investors, we find that the returns differential for portfolio securities is far smaller than previously reported. Examining all U.S. claims and liabilities, we find that previous estimates of large differentials are biased upward. The bias owes to computing implied returns from an internally inconsistent data set of revised data; original data produce a much smaller differential. We also attempt to reconcile our findings with observed patterns of cumulated current account deficits, the net international investment position, and the net income balance. Overall, we find no evidence that the United States can count on earning substantially more on its claims than it pays on its liabilities.

Evidence on the Audit Risk Model: Do Auditors Increase Audit Fees in the Presence of Internal Control Deficiencies?*

Contemporary Accounting Research 2008 25(1), 219-242
The article discusses the study of determining whether audit risk model is descriptive of what occurs in the auditing practice or if the relationship between fees and internal control deficiencies (ICDs) suggest that audit enterprises exert more effort in auditing firms that impart ICDs. The study examines the internal controls over financial reporting (ICOFR), generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), audit risk model, audit fees and sections of Sarbanes-Oxley Act. The study found out that audit fees are significantly higher for firms disclosing material weakness.