In this paper we estimate oil and nonoil import demand functions for the United States under the assumption that import prices are uncertain. Both import demand functions are formally derived from an expected utility maximization problem, treating imports as inputs to the technology. The model allows us to test for risk aversion and to assess the impact of uncertainty on the volume of imports, gross output, and the distribution of income. We find that uncertainty leads to a reduction in welfare, imports, and gross output. Moreover, it hurts labor relatively much more than capital. The impact of uncertainty, however, is found to be quite small.

The purpose of this paper is to examine production decisions under output price uncertainty. Using a nonparametric estimation technique to estimate the first four moments of the unknown price distribution and applying duality, we provide a simple empirical framework for the analysis of supply and demand decisions under price uncertainty. The model is used to examine the importance of higher moments in the firm's production decisions and to investigate underlying attitudes toward risk.

f [HE Austrian approach to production _ theory' provides a framework for treating intertemporal production problems that is quite different from contemporary methods. In the Austrian view, time and timing were the crucial aspects of production. Recently, Hicks (1973) has proposed an approach, which he terms Neo-Austrian, integrating the general intertemporal production model with the Austrian approach of viewing production as a process taking place through time.2 Allais (1965), long a proponent of such a view, has developed a model of such a process. In this article we develop anintertemporal production model capable of being implemented econometrically, and undertake some initial testing of the model at the aggregate level on U.S. data. The rest of the paper is as follows. In section II we present an intertemporal theory of competitive production and contrast it with the contemporary approach. In section III we specify our functional forms and estimating equations. In section IV we discuss our data, estimation procedure and results.