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Private Sector Provision as an “Escape Valve”: The Mexico Diabetes Experiment

Review of Economic Studies 2025 92(1), 129-161
Public health systems are dominant in much of the world but often face fiscal constraints that lead to rationing of care. As a result, private sector healthcare providers could in theory beneficially supplement public systems, but evaluating the benefits of private alternatives has been challenging. We evaluate a private supplement to the free public health system for one of the world’s deadliest health problems, diabetes. We estimate enormous impacts of the private supplement, increasing the share of those treated who are under control by 69%. This effect arises through both improved treatment compliance and health behavior. We find diabetes complications fall in the short run, and that the net costs of this intervention are one-third of the gross costs. The returns to private care do not appear to reflect more productive delivery but rather more attachment to medical care, offering lessons for improving the public system.

Contract Terms, Employment Shocks, and Default in Credit Cards

Review of Economic Studies 2026 93(4), 2451-2489
Regulatory concerns over a tension between expanding financial access and limiting default have led to significant restrictions on contract terms in a number of countries, despite limited evidence on their effectiveness. We use a large nation-wide RCT to examine new borrower responses to changes in interest rates and minimum payments for a credit card that accounted for 15% of all first-time formal loans in Mexico. Default rates were 19% over the 26 month experiment and a 30 pp decrease in interest rates decreased default by 2.5 pp with no effects on the newest borrowers. Doubling minimum payments increased default by 0.8 pp during the experiment but reduced it by 1 pp afterwards, possibly by reducing debt. Matching the experimental sample to their formal employment histories we find that the effect of job separation—more common among new borrowers—on default is seven times larger than the effect of the 30 pp interest rate change. We provide a simple framework for interpreting the experimental results, and rationalize the smaller contract term effects by their limited effects on cash flow rather than by differences in per-peso impacts.