I conduct an empirical investigation into the pricing of subprime asset-backed collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and their contagion effects on other markets. Using data for the ABX subprime indexes, I find strong evidence of contagion in the financial markets. The results support the hypothesis that financial contagion was propagated primarily through liquidity and risk-premium channels, rather than through a correlated-information channel. Surprisingly, ABX index returns forecast stock returns and Treasury and corporate bond yield changes by as much as three weeks ahead during the subprime crisis. This challenges the popular view that the market prices of these “toxic assets” were unreliable; the results suggest that significant price discovery did in fact occur in the subprime market during the crisis.

Empirical researchers have frequently rejected the expectations hypothesis. The expectations hypothesis, however, has seldom, if ever, been tested at the extreme short end of the term structure where maturities are measured in days or weeks. Using overnight, weekly, and monthly repo rates, I find that term rates are almost unbiased estimates of the average overnight rate. This evidence provides new support for the expectations hypothesis.

We show the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross term structure framework can allow a variety of alternative equilibrium solutions for discount bond prices. This is important since it allows us additional flexibility in developing models that capture the properties of the term structure. As an example, we solve for the value of a discount bond when the short-term rate is absorbed at zero. We compare the yields implied by this model to those implied by the original Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross model. We also show that alternative equilibria can occur in other term structure models.

Many contingent claims incorporate options on yield levels. I derive closed-form expressions for European yield-option prices using a general equilibrium model in which the underlying yield is the relevant state variable. The properties of these options differ markedly from those of conventional options on traded assets. For example, yield-call values can be less than their intrinsic value and can be decreasing functions of the underlying yield. These features have important hedging implications. I examine the empirical implications of the model using price data for the 13-week T-bill options traded on the Chicago Board Options Exchange.

We derive and test an alternative closed-form general equilibrium model of the term structure within the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross theoretical framework in which yields are nonlinear functions of the risk-free rate. We show that equilibrium bond prices and the risk-free rate are not always inversely related and that bond risk need not be strictly increasing in maturity. Using Hansen's generalized method of moments to obtain parameter estimates, this nonlinear model outperforms the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross square root model in describing actual Treasury bill yields for the 1964–1986 period.

Journal Article Optimal Portfolio Choice and the Valuation of Illiquid Securities Get access Francis A. Longstaff Francis A. Longstaff University of California, Los Angeles Address correspondence to Francis A. Longstaff, Anderson School, UCLA, Box 951481, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1481, or e-mail [email protected]. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Review of Financial Studies, Volume 14, Issue 2, April 2001, Pages 407–431, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/14.2.407 Published: 21 June 2015

In the absence of frictions, the value of the underlying asset implied by option prices must equal its actual market value. With frictions, however, this requirement need not hold. Using S&P 100 index options data, I find that the implied cost of the index is significantly higher in the options market than in the stock market, and is directly related to measures of transaction costs and liquidity. I show that the Black-Scholes model has strong bid-ask spread, trading volume, and open interest biases. Option pricing models that relax the martingale restriction perform significantly better.

Many classes of assets are illiquid or nonmarketable in that they cannot always be traded immediately. Thus, a portfolio position in these becomes at least temporarily irreversible. We study the asset-pricing implications of this type of illiquidity in an exchange economy with heterogeneous agents. In this market, one asset is always liquid. The other asset can be traded initially, but then not again until after a “blackout” period. Illiquidity has a dramatic effect. Agents abandon diversification and choose polarized portfolios instead. The value of liquidity can represent a large portion of the equilibrium price of an asset. (JEL G11, G12)

This paper shows that all traditional forms of the expectations hypothesis can be consistent with the absence of arbitrage if markets are incomplete. A key implication is that the validity of the expectations hypothesis is purely an empirical issue; the expectations hypothesis cannot be ruled out on a priori theoretical grounds.