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Credit supply and house prices: Evidence from mortgage market segmentation

Journal of Financial Economics 2025 163, 103958
This paper develops a difference-in-differences estimator that uses annual changes in the conforming loan limit and the 80% loan-to-value (LTV) threshold to isolate the impact of easier access to credit on house prices. Houses that become eligible for financing with an 80% LTV conforming loan increase in value by about $1.17 per square foot, controlling for a rich set of characteristics. Our estimates imply a local elasticity of house prices to interest rates below 6, which suggests that interest rates are capitalized into prices to a lesser extent than proposed by studies relying on more aggregate variation.

House prices, collateral, and self-employment

Journal of Financial Economics 2015 117(2), 288-306
We show the importance of the collateral lending channel for small business employment over the past decade. Small businesses in areas with greater increases in house prices experienced stronger growth in employment than large firms in the same areas and industries. To identify the role of the collateral lending channel separately from aggregate changes in demand, we show that this effect is more pronounced in industries that need little start-up capital and in which housing collateral is more important. This increase is also present in manufacturing industries, particularly those that ship goods over long distances. In aggregate, the collateral lending channel explains 15–25% of employment variation.

Personal Bankruptcy Protection and Household Debt

Review of Financial Studies 2026
Increasing personal bankruptcy protection raises consumers’ desire to borrow and lenders’ cost of extending credit; the impact on equilibrium borrowing is ambiguous. Using bankruptcy protection changes between 1999 and 2005 across U.S. states, we find that borrowers respond to greater protection by increasing their unsecured debt. Border county estimates suggest that local economic conditions do not drive these results. Borrowers pay more for protection through higher interest rates, yet delinquency is unaffected. Our results indicate that rising borrower demand outstripped decreasing supply. Increased protections did not reduce the aggregate level of household debt but affected the composition of borrowing.