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Firm Valuation, Earnings Expectations, and the Exchange‐Rate Exposure Effect

Journal of Finance 1994 49(5), 1755-1785
ABSTRACT Consistent with previous research, we fail to find a significant correlation between the abnormal returns of our sample firms with international activities and changes in the dollar. We investigate the possibility that this failure is due to mispricing. Lagged changes in the dollar are a significant variable in explaining current abnormal returns of our sample firms, suggesting that mispricing does occur. A simple trading strategy based upon these results generates significant abnormal returns. Corroborating evidence from returns around earnings announcements as well as errors in analysts' forecasts of earnings is also provided.

Firm Valuation, Earnings Expectations, and the Exchange-Rate Exposure Effect

Journal of Finance 1994 49(5), 1755
Consistent with previous research, we fail to find a significant correlation between the abnormal returns of our sample firms with international activities and changes in the dollar. We investigate the possibility that this failure is due to mispricing. Lagged changes in the dollar are a significant variable in explaining current abnormal returns of our sample firms, suggesting that mispricing does occur. A simple trading strategy based upon these results generates significant abnormal returns. Corroborating evidence from returns around earnings announcements as well as errors in analysts' forecasts of earnings is also provided.

Pass‐through and Exposure

Journal of Finance 2002 57(1), 199-231
ABSTRACT Firms differ in the extent to which they “pass through” changes in exchange rates into foreign currency prices and in their “exposure” to exchange rates—the responsiveness of their profits to changes in exchange rates. Because pricing affects profitability, a firm's pass‐through and exposure should be related. This paper develops models of exporting firms under imperfect competition to study these related phenomena. From these models we derive the optimal pass‐through decisions and the resulting exchange rate exposure. The models are estimated on eight Japanese export industries using both the price data pass‐through and financial data for exposure.