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Tax Smoothing with Financial Instruments

American Economic Review 2016
This paper analyzes the optimal structure of government debt in a stochastic environment. In a model with distortionary taxes, the government should smooth tax rates over states of nature as well as over time. Government liabilities should be structured to hedge against macroeconomic shocks that affect the government budget. The optimal structure of government liabilities generally includes some "risky" securities that are state-contingent in real terms. The empirical part of the paper tests for tax smoothing and then studies state contingencies implemented by some specific securities, including nominal debt, long-term bonds, equity, and foreign-currency debt. Copyright 1990 by American Economic Association.

U.S. Equity Investment in Foreign Markets: Portfolio Rebalancing or Return Chasing?

American Economic Review 2016
1995). Our research examines whether the expansion of U.S. investment in foreign equities and the change in the composition of the foreign portfolio over time is consistent with standard models of international portfolio choice. To answer this question, we combine data on cross-border transactions in foreign equities with data on equity returns. Our approach has three important advantages over previous tests of models of international portfolio choice. First, we bring data on asset prices as well as data on the quantities of assets purchased to bear in the empirical tests.' Second, our testing procedure is robust to time-invariant hedge factors. This is because net purchases reflect changes in portfolio weights, and constant hedge factors that might explain home bias in levels do not affect the adjustment of the port

Ownership Risk, Investment, and the Use of Natural Resources

American Economic Review 2000 90(3), 526-549
The effect of insecure ownership on ordinary investment and natural resource use is examined. Insecure ownership is postulated to depend on the type of government regime in power and the prevalence of political violence or instability. The political determinants of economywide investment are estimated from cross-country data, and the results are used to form an index of ownership security. When introduced into empirical models of natural resource use, this index has a significant and quantitatively important effect on the use of forests and petroleum. Contrary to conventional wisdom, ownership risk slows resource use in some circumstances. (JEL Q20, Q30, E22)