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The Geographic Flow of Bank Funding and Access to Credit: Branch Networks, Synergies, and Local Competition

American Economic Review 2025 115(6), 1818-1856
Geographic dispersion of depositors, borrowers, and banks may prevent funding from flowing to high-loan-demand areas, limiting credit access. Using bank-county-year-level data, we provide evidence of geographic imbalance of deposits and loans and develop a methodology for investigating the contribution to this imbalance of branch networks, market power, and scope economies. Results are based on a novel measure of imbalance and estimation of a structural model of bank competition that admits interconnections across locations and between deposit and loan markets. Counterfactual experiments show branch networks, scope economies, and local competition affect credit flow to disadvantaged markets.

Household debt overhang and human capital investment

Journal of Financial Economics 2025 172, 104141
Unlike labor income, human capital is inseparable from individuals and does not completely accrue to creditors. Therefore, human capital investment is more resilient to “debt overhang” than labor supply. We develop a dynamic model displaying this difference. We find that while both labor supply and human capital investment are hump-shaped in household indebtedness, human capital investment declines less aggressively as indebtedness builds up. Importantly, because human capital is only valuable when households expect to supply labor, the greater reduction in labor supply due to debt overhang back-propagates into ex-ante human capital investment. We provide empirical support for the model.