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Gasoline Prices and the Used Automobile Market: A Rational Expectations Asset Price Approach

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1986 101(2), 323
This paper examines the impact of changes in gasoline price expectations on the market values of used automobiles. An asset model of automobile valuation is used to relate year-to-year changes in market values to changes in the present discounted value of gasoline expenses. Econometric evidence from data covering the years 1972 through 1981 substantially confirms the hypothesis of the model that a gasoline price shock causes relative price changes across automobile types in proportion to the differences in their rates of fuel consumption.

What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About Business Cycles

American Economic Review 2000 90(3), 458-481
The countercyclical pattern of inventory-sales ratios is a striking feature of inventory behavior. In a model where inventories are productive for sales, both the markup of price over marginal cost and expected changes in marginal cost are key determinants of that ratio. This paper argues that costly variation in factor utilization gives rise to countercyclical markups in production-to-stock manufacturing industries. The markup turns out to be more important than intertemporal substitution in explaining the behavior of inventory-sales ratios.